Macroeconomics
Angola improves data transparency with new hub
Statistics deemed “critical” by the International Monetary Fund will be published in one place
Finnish regulators need more macro-pru, deputy governor says
Current toolkit is not sufficient to deal with rising levels of household indebtedness
Cleveland Fed launches centre for inflation research
Bank plans to make its inflation conference annual rather than bi-annual
Bank lending standards can worsen financial frictions, ECB paper finds
Model shows tighter lending standards can damage productivity, researcher argues
French banking crisis of 1930s far worse than previously thought – BdF paper
Central bank policies worsened crisis, Banque de France paper says
Bank of Canada steps up financial stability research efforts
Economy faces risks from in-household debt, housing and cyber attacks, senior policy adviser says
Podcast: Crisis lessons
Central banks may have learned the lessons of the crisis, but are they fully on top of the risks?
Machine learning model outperforms professional forecasters
The model may uncover new relationships in data that were previously overlooked, researcher says
ECB unveils richer eurozone forecasting model
“NAWM II” models financial sector’s role in originating and propagating economic shocks
Eurozone may be close to potential growth – ECB paper
But all estimates of potential GDP should be treated with caution, researchers argue
Agent-based models: a new frontier for macroeconomics?
Agent-based modelling is opening up new possibilities for economics, but the discipline is still struggling to move from the sidelines to the mainstream
Fed vice-chair backs further tightening
Clarida says data likely to support further rate hikes as Mester warns US is “beyond full employment”
Populist policies can wreck economies, Sarb governor warns
South Africa needs economic stability, Kganyago says
Podcast: Arthur Turrell on agent-based modelling
The Bank of England economist says ABMs should complement, not replace, other models
Unconventional policy is best response to financial shocks – ECB paper
Non-standard measures shield borrowers from unwarranted lending rate rises, researchers say
Thailand’s macroeconomic policy at a ‘turning point’ – Santiprabhob
Policy will have to evolve to support the economy rather than stimulate it, governor says
Negative policy rates increases risk-taking by high-deposit banks - ECB paper
Eurozone banks with high deposit levels have changed lending patterns since 2014, say researchers
James Bullard on 2% rates, tariffs and Fed leadership
The president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis speaks about the impact of US trade policies, the disruption to the banking industry from Silicon Valley, shrinking the Fed balance sheet and the potential for agent-based modelling
Podcast: David Hendry and John Muellbauer on empirical macro
The econometricians cast a sceptical eye over DSGE models and weigh up some alternatives
BIS paper links Japan’s household debt to consumption behaviour
The researcher examines how Japanese household debt affects marginal propensity to consume
Researcher models business cycle using ‘animal spirits’
San Francisco Fed paper incorporates ‘equity sentiment shock’ into model
RBA paper modifies DGSE to include housing sector
Model does better job of explaining data on Australian economy, researchers say
Paper looks at impact of financial shocks on US labour markets
Negative shocks have far bigger effects than positive ones, researchers find
ECB’s QE has dampened volatility in Eastern Europe – BoI paper
End to ECB asset purchases might increase volatility in EU-6, researchers say