Macroeconomics
Book notes: The Japanese central banking system compared with its European and American counterparts, by Yoshiharu Oritani
The book has “no equal” in reviewing new microeconomic theory for central banking
Negative rates not to blame for low eurozone bank profitability – Fed paper
Rates and macroeconomic environment only make up third of shortfall, researchers find
Canada’s Poloz on monetary policy limits, transparency and cyber recovery
Bank of Canada governor Stephen Poloz speaks about stagflation risks from trade wars, the importance of market signals, Canada’s CBDC plans and why he is not a fan of minutes
IMF boosts financial surveillance funding
IMF seeks to improve hiring and training of economists after Independent Evaluation Office report
BdF paper uses professional forecasts to improve BVAR model
Authors use “entropic tilting and soft conditioning” to incorporate survey data into model
Falls in uncertainty may warn of coming crises – Bundesbank paper
Researchers attempt to quantify relationship between rising confidence and early signs of crisis
Trump has changed markets’ expectations of Fed’s moves – researchers
Goldman Sachs and NBER both study implications of Trump’s tweets on trade and the Fed
Central banks must use “unconstrained” negative rates, Rogoff tells ECB
Policy-makers must ensure cash depreciates against electronic money, or face failure, Rogoff says
ECB paper takes new approach to modelling lower bound
Model uses regime-switching approach to look at returns on short-term bond yields
IMF economist: central banks may have misdiagnosed secular slowdown
Lower neutral rates may have been caused by central banks lowering rates, researcher says
Book notes: Economics for the common good, by Jean Tirole
The book should be well received amid the recent rise in populism
Emir data can give valuable insights on rate expectations – ECB paper
New methodology uses data on OTC transactions to track market expectations of interest rates
Asymmetric inflation targets improve welfare – Chicago Fed paper
Fed can remove deflationary bias by adopting asymmetric target, model suggests
Yellen condemns ‘unacceptable’ treatment of female and minority economists
Former Fed chair says more needs to be done to tackle discrimination in the profession
IMF research flags urgent need for climate policy framework
Co-ordination of fiscal, financial and monetary instruments will be needed, say authors
Argentine governor demands political consensus on macroeconomic framework
Sandleris says every election unleashes market volatility and disrupts stabilisation efforts
Economists publish ‘crash course’ on euro crisis
Brunnermeier and Reis say framework is designed to help students grasp the macro-financial roots of recent crises
Summers and Stansbury warn of ‘black hole’ as central bankers debate solutions
Economists say they hope for revolutionary thinking at Jackson Hole conference – “but we are not holding our breath”
FOMC divided over July cut, minutes show
Some FOMC members worried by effect of rate cut on US financial stability
Anticipation of fiscal stimulus has ‘sizeable’ impact on growth – paper
Passing the 2018 US Bipartisan Budget Act increased GDP by 1%, researchers find
Inflation target uncertainty magnifies price shocks’ impact- BoI paper
Researchers investigate effects of central banks failing to pefectly follow targets
Shale oil boom has not shifted global supply- ECB paper
Global oil supply appears to be “rather vertical” at all times, researchers find
‘Animal spirits’ are real, DNB paper says
Researchers analyse data on household spending and consumer confidence
Negative ECB deposit rate had limited effects – Bundesbank paper
Well-capitalised banks in core countries responded most to negative rates, researchers find