Macroeconomics
James Bullard on 2% rates, tariffs and Fed leadership
The president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis speaks about the impact of US trade policies, the disruption to the banking industry from Silicon Valley, shrinking the Fed balance sheet and the potential for agent-based modelling
Podcast: David Hendry and John Muellbauer on empirical macro
The econometricians cast a sceptical eye over DSGE models and weigh up some alternatives
BIS paper links Japan’s household debt to consumption behaviour
The researcher examines how Japanese household debt affects marginal propensity to consume
Researcher models business cycle using ‘animal spirits’
San Francisco Fed paper incorporates ‘equity sentiment shock’ into model
RBA paper modifies DGSE to include housing sector
Model does better job of explaining data on Australian economy, researchers say
Paper looks at impact of financial shocks on US labour markets
Negative shocks have far bigger effects than positive ones, researchers find
ECB’s QE has dampened volatility in Eastern Europe – BoI paper
End to ECB asset purchases might increase volatility in EU-6, researchers say
Eurozone governments’ post-crisis fiscal policies were ‘self-defeating’
Policies ended up being contractionary, IMF-organised conference hears
Issuing “foreign-law” debt can cut costs in times of crisis – ECB paper
Eurozone countries’ bonds issued abroad showed major premiums during debt crisis – researchers
Woodford shows finite horizons matter when modelling
Removing rational expectations can change key economic results, says Michael Woodford
QE boosts bond prices above ‘fundamental’ level, Banque de France paper finds
Paper uses experimental techniques to simulate QE’s effects on bond markets
Nominal exchange rates can be forecast on ‘back of a napkin’ - ECB paper
Flexible exchange rates in advanced countries have two regularities, researchers find
Sovereign debt crisis caused European firms to cut wages – DNB paper
Researchers say credit stress causes firms to reduce variable parts of wages
Global factor influences inflation volatility, Italian paper says
Researchers say inflation volatility correlates to oil inflation rates and Chinese producer prices
Government spending can have low multipliers at ZLB – Bank of Italy paper
Model’s results are in line with recent empirical evidence, researchers say
Andreas Dombret on ECB policy, deposit insurance and Basel III
The Deutsche Bundesbank executive board member speaks about exiting QE, the viability of European deposit insurance, the German banking system and doing a deal on Basel III
Bundesbank paper asks ‘how far can we forecast?’
Statistical tests imply forecasts typically become uninformative after just a few quarters
Liquidity build-ups may cause emerging market instability – Bundesbank paper
Bundesbank paper examines effects of advanced economies’ liquidity on emerging economies
The IFF China Report 2018: Chinese financial system reform
China is focusing greater effort in tackling the build-up of risks in its banking and financial system, while also seeking to ensure credit is more effectively distributed in the real economy. At the same time it is has embraced fintech but policymakers…
BoE paper investigates uncertainty around elections
Elections help to isolate macroeconomic and financial uncertainty, author argues
More older people and women joining labour force, RBNZ paper finds
New Zealand’s labour force participation has grown since 2000 and reached an all-time high in 2017
BoE paper hunts for shifts in forecast accuracy
Authors outline new method of detecting when forecasts break down
ECB paper proposes eurozone stabilisation policy based on trade changes
Scheme would avoid moral hazard or permanent transfers from one country, authors argue
Bank of Canada building systems back-up outside Ottawa – annual report
Cyber risk is becoming “a top priority”, Poloz says