Macroeconomics
Eurozone governments’ post-crisis fiscal policies were ‘self-defeating’
Policies ended up being contractionary, IMF-organised conference hears
Issuing “foreign-law” debt can cut costs in times of crisis – ECB paper
Eurozone countries’ bonds issued abroad showed major premiums during debt crisis – researchers
Woodford shows finite horizons matter when modelling
Removing rational expectations can change key economic results, says Michael Woodford
QE boosts bond prices above ‘fundamental’ level, Banque de France paper finds
Paper uses experimental techniques to simulate QE’s effects on bond markets
Nominal exchange rates can be forecast on ‘back of a napkin’ - ECB paper
Flexible exchange rates in advanced countries have two regularities, researchers find
Sovereign debt crisis caused European firms to cut wages – DNB paper
Researchers say credit stress causes firms to reduce variable parts of wages
Global factor influences inflation volatility, Italian paper says
Researchers say inflation volatility correlates to oil inflation rates and Chinese producer prices
Government spending can have low multipliers at ZLB – Bank of Italy paper
Model’s results are in line with recent empirical evidence, researchers say
Andreas Dombret on ECB policy, deposit insurance and Basel III
The Deutsche Bundesbank executive board member speaks about exiting QE, the viability of European deposit insurance, the German banking system and doing a deal on Basel III
Bundesbank paper asks ‘how far can we forecast?’
Statistical tests imply forecasts typically become uninformative after just a few quarters
Liquidity build-ups may cause emerging market instability – Bundesbank paper
Bundesbank paper examines effects of advanced economies’ liquidity on emerging economies
The IFF China Report 2018: Chinese financial system reform
China is focusing greater effort in tackling the build-up of risks in its banking and financial system, while also seeking to ensure credit is more effectively distributed in the real economy. At the same time it is has embraced fintech but policymakers…
BoE paper investigates uncertainty around elections
Elections help to isolate macroeconomic and financial uncertainty, author argues
More older people and women joining labour force, RBNZ paper finds
New Zealand’s labour force participation has grown since 2000 and reached an all-time high in 2017
BoE paper hunts for shifts in forecast accuracy
Authors outline new method of detecting when forecasts break down
ECB paper proposes eurozone stabilisation policy based on trade changes
Scheme would avoid moral hazard or permanent transfers from one country, authors argue
Bank of Canada building systems back-up outside Ottawa – annual report
Cyber risk is becoming “a top priority”, Poloz says
ECB’s open market operations often raise banks’ liquidity – paper
Asset “haircuts” imposed by ECB often smaller than those in repo markets – researchers
Tighter policy policy may increase financial instability, researcher says
Higher rates may pressure banks’ balance sheets and increase assets held by money market funds, says paper published by San Francisco Fed
High corporate debt harms Italy’s productivity, IMF research says
Policymakers should look at discouraging structural corporate debt, researchers say
Global uncertainty increases financial interconnections – paper
Researchers use a network approach to evaluate financial interconnectedness
Bank of Korea unveils changes to its DSGE model
The existing model’s accuracy was reduced following structural changes in the economy
Standard measures understate slack in European labour markets – ECB paper
Researchers use survey data from 24 countries to track effects of sovereign debt crisis
‘Intensified’ tax competition will affect euro area – research
Latest ECB bulletin shows “possible erosion of tax bases” in the EU, after recent US tax reforms