Macroeconomics
Trade tensions could ripple among South-east Asian nations – Menon
Rising leverage ratios a key risk for EM Asia, but the region is more resilient
Central bank outlook is key to rate decisions’ impact – Bundesbank paper
“Pure policy” and “information” shocks have very different effects on economy, researcher argues
Book notes: Where economics went wrong, by David Colander and Craig Freedman
Chicago economics’ gladiatorial debating style has cost the discipline dearly, the authors argue
IMF paper sets out growth-at-risk framework
Tool for assessing macro-financial conditions likely to enhance surveillance, authors say
Trump’s tariffs may have caused inflation – researchers
Estimates indicate tariffs may have already contributed 0.1 percentage points to CPI, authors find
Australian governor says productivity rises needed to boost incomes
Lowe told lawmakers falling house prices will not ‘derail’ Australian economy
UK economy stumbles as Brexit looms
Quarterly growth slips to 0.2% in final quarter of 2018, and monthly growth turns negative in December; business investment also down
Latest restructuring boosts the PBoC’s regulatory clout
Hui Feng says the restructuring of the PBoC carries “profound implications” for the central bank’s role in policy-making
Monetary policy must respond aggressively to persistent shocks – BoI paper
Researchers model economy where central bank has less information than private firms
Negative rates could have sped up US recovery – San Fran Fed paper
Output gap could have been reduced by as much as half compared to actual figures, researcher says
Only Fed could respond to fresh downturn, Axel Weber says
Most central banks have no room for manoeuvre, says former Bundesbank president
US equity prices affect consumer and business confidence, researcher finds
Results highlight risks to macroeconomy of recent equity slump
Book notes: EuroTragedy, by Ashoka Mody
The former International Monetary Fund insider elegantly tells the story of the creation of the currency that has defied economics, warning that it could get “worse, much worse”
Denmark intervenes to maintain euro peg
A rate hike is “very likely” if intervention continues, analyst says
Conventional models beat machine learning in predicting crises, paper finds
Bundesbank paper contrasts performance of logit approach to machine learning
2018: The year in review
The past year marked a return to instability, but also saw some innovations among central banks
Causes of liquidity traps are ‘crucial’ to policy response – BdF paper
Liquidity traps caused by investor deleveraging may not respond to QE, researchers say
Google’s data tool has potential for countries with data gaps – IMF research
Authors explore how search queries can be used to track human behaviour, which could be used to map macroeconomic indicators
Book notes: Macroprudential policy and practice, edited by Paul Mizen, Margarita Rubio and Philip Turner
An important overview of the current state of thinking about macro-prudential policy, but uncertainties remain about the current allocation of financial stability responsibilities
Angola improves data transparency with new hub
Statistics deemed “critical” by the International Monetary Fund will be published in one place
Finnish regulators need more macro-pru, deputy governor says
Current toolkit is not sufficient to deal with rising levels of household indebtedness
Cleveland Fed launches centre for inflation research
Bank plans to make its inflation conference annual rather than bi-annual
Bank lending standards can worsen financial frictions, ECB paper finds
Model shows tighter lending standards can damage productivity, researcher argues
French banking crisis of 1930s far worse than previously thought – BdF paper
Central bank policies worsened crisis, Banque de France paper says