IMF paper sets out growth-at-risk framework
Tool for assessing macro-financial conditions likely to enhance surveillance, authors say
The International Monetary Fund has published a paper detailing its “growth-at-risk” framework for assessing how financial risks could impact future growth.
In the working paper, a team of researchers explains how to conduct GAR analysis, and outlines an Excel-based GAR tool designed to support IMF surveillance.
GAR “links macrofinancial conditions to the probability distribution of future real GDP growth”, the authors say.
The measure has several advantages, they add. It “draws attention” to
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