Inflation
Hungary holds rates as economic outlook nosedives
MNB’s annual growth forecasts are significantly lower than the government’s
Paraguay maintains policy rate at 6%
Central bank delivers 15th consecutive hold as inflation trends towards new 3.5% target
Thailand holds rates as trade talks with US continue
Central bank says tariffs are among reasons for projected economic slowdown in 2025
Recollections may differ on Weimar hyperinflation – ECB blog
Author says first-hand accounts suggest episode was less traumatic than politicians would later claim
Bowman is latest Fed member to call for July rates cut
Vice-chair for supervision joins Waller in saying risks to growth outweigh risks to inflation
Paraguay’s Carvallo Spalding on resilience and cutting its inflation target
The Central Bank of Paraguay (BCP) governor speaks about lowering the inflation target to 3.5%, opening up to foreign investors and promoting inclusion through digital payments
Brazil raises policy rate to 15% and signals ‘prolonged’ hold
BCB makes seventh consecutive hike; inflation trends downwards but still above target
Fed maintains wait-and-see approach with rate hold
Powell ignores Trump’s calls for easing amid president’s continued insults
Chile holds rates at 5% again
Inflation slows and growth exceeds expectations, though war in Middle East adds uncertainty, BCCh says
Climate risk could affect both financial and price stability – BdF’s Dees
Head of French central bank’s climate economics unit says monitoring climate risks is vital for fulfilling primary mandate
BoJ holds rates, plans to slow bond purchases
Central bank keeps policy rate at 0.5%, will reduce JGB taper from next year
Policy must be forceful to anchor expectations, panel hears
Central bankers discuss lessons from post-Covid inflation surge at Summer Meetings
A fireside chat with BIS head Agustín Carstens
The lifetime achievement award-winner speaks with Chris Jeffery about how experiencing inflation shaped his career, gaps in economic theory and macro-pru governance, the future of money and the importance of international co-operation
Russia’s rates cut does not presage shift in stance
Experts say central bank remains alert to inflation risks and will maintain ultra-restrictive policy
Banque de France governor declares victory over inflation
Villeroy de Galhau says France has to “spend better” to reduce debt
Tariffs will raise US prices throughout 2025 – Fed governor
Kugler says progress on core goods inflation has been reversed and trade policy could make things worse
Inflationary shocks hurt US labour market and output – Fed study
As real wages decline, workers search for new, less economically productive jobs, research finds
European Central Bank reduces rates by 25bp
Lagarde hints at pause in next meeting, dispels rumours about early departure
SNB paper shows 5–6% boost in inflation forecasting
Hedged random forest method “consistently outperforms” unhedged approach
A fractured monetary system
US policy is encouraging a transition away from a dollar-led, rules-based order
Reflections on the international financial situation
Former IMF head Jacques de Larosière writes that markets are blind to Trump's policy shocks that are fragmenting the monetary ‘system’, causing strain in the eurozone and may result in stagflation
Bank of Korea makes 25bp cut and lowers GDP forecast again
Central bank hints at further easing as weak domestic recovery and US tariffs dim growth outlook
RBNZ cuts by 25bp in sixth straight rate reduction
New Zealand’s central bank signals steeper easing cycle as tariff uncertainty dents growth outlook
Trends in reserve management 2025: survey results
Insights on strategies in anticipation of tariffs, interest rate divergence and geopolitical risk, FX diversification and de-dollarisation, as well as bitcoin in reserves, FX interventions and gold