Construction trends can predict yield curve inversions – St Louis Fed

dollar-houses

A fall in planned housing construction can be used to predict a yield curve inversion and subsequent recession, researchers from the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis find.

In two economic letters, the researchers examine a number of variables that have traditionally been used to predict recessions, such as manufacturing and construction employment. They also examine the expected housebuilding activity.

They plot the trends in these variables against yield curve inversions to analyse which one

To continue reading...

You need to sign in to use this feature. If you don’t have a Central Banking account, please register for a trial.

Sign in
You are currently on corporate access.

To use this feature you will need an individual account. If you have one already please sign in.

Sign in.

Alternatively you can request an individual account here: