Forecasting
‘Rolling windows’ method may help evaluate big data forecasts
Barbara Rossi presents new approach at ECB’s AI conference
Central Banking Awards 2026: third group of winners
Awards unveiled for Central bank of the year, AI initiative, PMI development retail and wholesale, Initiative and more
Artificial intelligence initiative: Bank of Namibia
A concerted effort to implement AI has delivered efficiency gains within and across the financial sector
People: Braddick to take charge at UK’s prudential watchdog
Plus: BoE also appoints first executive director for monetary policy
RBA did not lose focus on inflation, says deputy governor
Hauser says last year’s cuts were based on assumption that price levels in Australia would be lower
Fed paper touts prediction market data for monetary policy
Sites like Kalshi could become “new benchmark” for measuring expectations, researchers say
QT ‘crucial’ if ECB is to tackle future crises, says Nagel
Bundesbank president says dollarisation by way of stablecoins could weaken European sovereignty
IMF and NBU rework models to reflect Russia-Ukraine war
Forecast process redesigned to take account of battlefield uncertainty and additional policy tools
Models need rethink due to effect of global shocks – paper
Central banks can no longer assume shocks are ‘temporary, linear and symmetric’, authors say
Sveriges Riksbank holds rates, signals longer-term pause
Swedish economy continues to grow, despite ‘dramatic’ geopolitical developments, bank says
BoE’s new forecast evaluation unpacks causes of errors
Global shocks and wage growth led bank to underestimate inflation persistence
BoE paper offers method to build narrative around forecasts
Process could support use of SVAR models in monetary policy process
Scenario analysis difficult to get right, say BoE watchers
Economists welcome attempt to convey uncertainty but criticise aspects of central bank’s reforms
National central banks hold rates across Europe
Albania, Czech Republic, Hungary, Norway and Sweden all leave policy unchanged
RBNZ’s Breman to discuss greater transparency with MPC
New governor says she will raise issue of attributing votes on rate decisions to individual policy-makers
Iceland makes 25bp cut amid mortgage market turmoil
Decision comes after court ruling forces lenders to tighten terms of home loans on offer
BoE’s Pill focused on ‘nominal momentum’ in UK economy
Chief economist says inflation dynamics seem to have changed, but there is a lot of noise in the data
Czech Republic, Moldova and Norway hold rates
CNB says services inflation is still high, Moldova is recovering and Norway says it is in no hurry
Bailey switches sides as BoE holds at 4% in 5–4 decision
Members’ views, published for first time, show disagreement around staff’s central projection
ECB and BoJ officials reject explicit forward guidance
Central bankers promote ‘meeting-by-meeting’ approach to rates setting
BoE paper offers methods for policy-making under uncertainty
Forecast-based, news-based and rules-based methods can be used together, authors say