Forecasting
Peru raises rates for 18th consecutive month
Inflation remains stubbornly high, but central bank is optimistic it will fall in 2023
Romania may be at end of tightening cycle
Inflation resumed upward march in November, but major bank says cycle has ended
Cook suggests US may need to change inflation models
Fed governor believes inflation on path to 2% but tight labour market remains upside risk
Bank of Japan to raise inflation forecasts, reports say
Central bank said to be likely to project nearly 2% annual inflation for 2024
FOMC waiting for ‘more evidence’ of inflation decline
December FOMC minutes show staff and policy-makers warning inflation risks remain high
Palestine weathers ‘complex crises’ but faces further slowdown
Unemployment remains high and the government’s budget under severe stress
Economics Benchmarks 2022 – executive summary
Key findings of the 2022 report, including model choices, governance structures and data use
Economics Benchmarks 2022 report – evolving models
Central banks continued to develop their modelling frameworks in 2022
Brazil and Paraguay hold rates, while Curaçao opts for rise
Inflation has almost halved in Brazil in six months since April, but board says fiscal outlook uncertain
Chile pauses rate hikes, but Peru continues tightening
Peruvian board carries on with policy meeting despite political turmoil
Bank of Canada raises rates again
Central bank notes growth is stalling and will consider if more raises are needed
RBA delivers another 25bp rate hike
Philip Lowe signals flexibility over further rate increases
Bank of Thailand governor calls for better inflation model
Phillips curve model under-predicts inflation, argues governor Sethaput
Armenia’s Galstyan calls for a new framework to tackle uncertainty and nonlinearities
Favours risk-management approach to policy and less emphasis on baseline forecasts that give false assurances
Bank of Thailand raises interest rate by 25 basis points
Central bank decision comes after headline inflation eased to around 6% in October
BoE’s Ramsden says forecasts now less reliable
High uncertainty means policy-makers cannot rely heavily on forecasts, deputy says
ECB paper presents new corporate default prediction method
Authors say their “distance to insolvency” measure outperforms other forecasting methods
Das outlines RBI’s post-Covid research reforms
Central bank has adopted “full information” system to capture economic dynamics
BoE officials reject criticism of forecast misses
Bailey says labour market dominates firms’ concerns and says Brexit has hampered economy
Serbia hikes for eighth consecutive month
Inflation is nearing peak and “slowdown was sharper than expected”, board says
RBNZ review says monetary tightening could have started earlier
Review endorses RBNZ’s pandemic measures, and calls for more attention to supply shocks
Some Latin American central banks pause tightening cycle
Paraguay second to hold rates after Brazil, as Peru and Chile signal they may do the same
Taiwan’s governor says uncertainties are hampering forecasting
Yang says central bank will examine wider range of data to improve inflation estimates
Armenian governor argues for ‘paradigm shift’ in forecasting
Base case should be abandoned in favour of multiple scenarios, says Martin Galstyan