Forecasting
Machine learning can improve inflation forecasts – IMF paper
Model for Japan is “easily interpretable” and overcomes some drawbacks of standard models
BoC paper offers monetary policy ‘decision synthesis’
Authors say model combination method helps capture complexities of decision-making
Central banks need to avoid ‘overconfidence’, says RBA’s Hauser
Deputy governor warns against 'false prophets' when forecasting with point estimates
Central Bank of Kenya upgrades nowcasting platform
Package of forecasting reforms is part of ongoing policy “modernisation”
BoE economists hunt ‘driving forces’ of forecast errors
“Systematic” study of mistakes finds wage growth and expectations could have been modelled better
BNM’s Rasheed on inflation, growth and currency performance in emerging markets
Bank Negara Malaysia’s governor speaks about balancing inflation and growth, supporting the ringgit, multilateral currency settlement and greening Islamic finance
Half of central banks use forecast errors to assess policy impact
Surveys of expectations widely used but surveys of trust and understanding are less common
Simpler models can capture dynamics of Hank framework – NBER paper
Heterogeneity can be “irrelevant” to determining output in some situations, authors find
ECB cuts policy rate by 25 basis points
Strong eurozone wage growth rules out commitment to further cuts, says governing council
Lkhagvasuren Byadran on geopolitics, gold and 100 years of central banking on the steppe
Bank of Mongolia governor Lkhagvasuren Byadran speaks about monetary and financial reform, embracing AI and fintech, and Mongolia’s new SWF
Are low-level inflation targets still fit for purpose?
Geostrategic shifts make the case for a narrow price target less compelling
Risks facing central banks: action and inaction
Unlike Fed policy in the 1990s, central bank actions this century do not appear overly accommodative, given poor policy decisions elsewhere, writes Andrew Smithers
What is forecasting for? Bernanke and the future of BoE projections
The Bernanke review pushes central banks to rethink the role of forecasts in policy-making, but it also shies away from solving a key paradox in the process
Cecilia Skingsley on monetary policy tech and a unified ledger
Head of the BIS Innovation Hub speaks about tokenisation, CBDCs and the ‘black box problem’ in AI
Bernanke urges regular policy reviews at BoE
Former Fed chair recommends reviews of “policy implementation and framework”
Oil shocks can be identified in real time, paper says
Bank of Italy researchers’ model identifies demand and supply shocks from daily data
Fed holds rates as it struggles with inflation’s last mile
Experts disagree over risks of rising inflation and difficulty of Fed’s position
Schnabel: ECB could replace central forecast scenario
ECB should consider using alternative scenarios and dot plots to convey uncertainty, official says
Bank of Korea considering forward guidance reform
Governor Rhee Chang-yong sees merit in revealing more information to public
Taking stock of Bernanke: the original sin of forecasting
Jagjit Chadha says the Bernanke review of forecasting should be the start of a more profound discussion at the Bank of England
Bernanke calls for total redesign of BoE forecasting
Report calls for major changes to infrastructure, core models, staffing, communications and more