Forecasting
Inflation: what went wrong, and why?
Three theories on the causes of high inflation and their implications for policy responses
Fed raises interest rate 75bp for third time
Powell reiterates pledge to “keep at it” until inflation is back to 2%
Economy’s ‘first responders’ now in the line of fire
Forceful but late interventions to combat inflation raise the risk of central bank overreactions
UK inflation dips below 10%
Lower fuel costs bring down headline figure, but underlying inflation remains strong
RBA’s Lowe admits inflation models need rethink
Governor acknowledges forecasting mistakes but rejects calls to resign
BoE policy-makers debate more aggressive tightening
New government and “extreme volatility” in energy markets complicate outlook
ECB’s Lane and Schnabel strike different notes on eurozone inflation
Schnabel says “right tail” shift could herald de-anchoring, but Lane says other outcomes are possible
Decision theory can guide climate modelling, Nobel laureate says
Lars Peter Hansen argues policy-makers need to pay more attention to uncertainty
RBA sets up new panel of private-sector economists
Expert panel will meet at least twice a year; move follows “embarrassing” forecasting issues
RBNZ delivers fourth straight 50bp rate hike
New Zealand’s central bank now expects rate to peak 15bp higher, at 4.1%
Long-term data can shed light on current inflation – NBER paper
Authors suggest first half of 20th century has clearer parallel to current inflation than 1970s
How central bank mistakes after 2019 led to inflation
There is a need to acknowledge errors and take concrete action to restore confidence in policy-making
The case for restoring the role of monetary aggregates
Surge in money supply in response to Covid-19 triggered rampant inflation
Czech central bank halts tightening
Many had expected new governor and board to take dovish turn
Australian government to review RBA mandate and governance
Review will look into the board structure and performance, after RBA suffers criticism over policy choices
Rethinking regulation of the modern financial system
Rules need to address uncertainty in addition to risks, and should not be too complex
BoE’s Pill says focus is on slower-moving elements of inflation
Policy-makers trying to walk “narrow path” as they resist second-round effects of high inflation
Quarterly forecast updates are the norm at central banks
Forecasting tends to be a collaborative exercise between staff and policy-makers
Top central bankers admit inflation models fell short
Reliance on Phillips curve and demand-driven models may have created blind spots
Hungary makes shock 185bp rate increase
Central bank responds to inflation and weak forint with largest increase since 2008
The signal and the noise: cash forecasting in uncertain times
From big data tools to Arima models and structural time series, cash forecasting methods are evolving
RBNZ tightening policy ‘by more and sooner’
Central bank orders second 50bp hike, the fifth increase since last October
BoE’s Pill says UK facing strong ‘inflationary momentum’
Latest inflation forecast “does not make for pretty reading”, says chief economist
Small drop in US CPI hints at inflation reprieve
Economists estimate US is past inflation peak, but other G7 nations may still be on the upward leg