Forecasting
People: Braddick to take charge at UK’s prudential watchdog
Plus: BoE also appoints first executive director for monetary policy
IMF and NBU rework models to reflect Russia-Ukraine war
Forecast process redesigned to take account of battlefield uncertainty and additional policy tools
Models need rethink due to effect of global shocks – paper
Central banks can no longer assume shocks are ‘temporary, linear and symmetric’, authors say
Sveriges Riksbank holds rates, signals longer-term pause
Swedish economy continues to grow, despite ‘dramatic’ geopolitical developments, bank says
BoE’s new forecast evaluation unpacks causes of errors
Global shocks and wage growth led bank to underestimate inflation persistence
BoE paper offers method to build narrative around forecasts
Process could support use of SVAR models in monetary policy process
Scenario analysis difficult to get right, say BoE watchers
Economists welcome attempt to convey uncertainty but criticise aspects of central bank’s reforms
National central banks hold rates across Europe
Albania, Czech Republic, Hungary, Norway and Sweden all leave policy unchanged
RBNZ’s Breman to discuss greater transparency with MPC
New governor says she will raise issue of attributing votes on rate decisions to individual policy-makers
Iceland makes 25bp cut amid mortgage market turmoil
Decision comes after court ruling forces lenders to tighten terms of home loans on offer
BoE’s Pill focused on ‘nominal momentum’ in UK economy
Chief economist says inflation dynamics seem to have changed, but there is a lot of noise in the data
Czech Republic, Moldova and Norway hold rates
CNB says services inflation is still high, Moldova is recovering and Norway says it is in no hurry
Bailey switches sides as BoE holds at 4% in 5–4 decision
Members’ views, published for first time, show disagreement around staff’s central projection
ECB and BoJ officials reject explicit forward guidance
Central bankers promote ‘meeting-by-meeting’ approach to rates setting
BoE paper offers methods for policy-making under uncertainty
Forecast-based, news-based and rules-based methods can be used together, authors say
The voice of the central bank in times of uncertainty
The NBU’s monetary policy head Volodymyr Lepushynskyi explains the importance of transparent communications in maintaining trust and managing expectations
Scenario analysis widely used to assess risk but communication varies
Most central banks produce multiple forecasts to illustrate monetary policy risks, but less than half publish them
Central banks must focus on comms – Bank of Finland panel
Institutions need to concentrate on anchoring inflation expectations, governors say
Norges Bank continues easing campaign with another 25bp cut
Central bank governor strikes hawkish tone, highlights increasing productivity
Riksbank deputies say rate forecasting key to transparency
Officials say advantages of openness outweigh drawbacks
More economists expect MAS to ease policy next month
Singapore survey finds most still expect no change to country’s currency exchange band