Forecasting
Professional long-run inflation forecasts are flawed – study
Chicago Fed research says projections are bogged down by cognitive distortions and overconfidence
BoE’s new research agenda adds focus on balance sheet
Three-year plan responds to inflation surge, market turmoil and changed mandates
Accounting for banknotes
Three leading experts on central bank finances debate the appropriate treatment of currency
Madagascar’s governor on targeting M3 over inflation
Central Bank of Madagascar head Aivo Andrianarivelo speaks about introducing an interest rate corridor, diversifying from dollars to gold, using instant payments to bolster inclusion and drawing on IMF sustainability funding
Distributions allow better state-level forecasts – RBI paper
Authors find new method incorporating inflation and expectations can cut forecast errors
2024: The year in central banking
A look back at the biggest and most popular news stories of the year
Economics Benchmarks 2024 – model banks analysis
Additional data breakdowns reveal patterns based on staffing and development
Economics Benchmarks 2024 – executive summary
The benchmark drills into model design features as well as staffing, research and AI
Economics Benchmarks 2024 report – making models work
The benchmarks this year include more granular details on key model design features
Heterogeneous agents and non-linearities rare in main models
Semi-structural models continue to be dominant choice of main forecast model at central banks
Economists least likely to research impact of AI
Inflation dynamics retains position at top of the rankings
Nandalal Weerasinghe on Sri Lanka’s IMF programme, central bank reforms and road to recovery
The Central Bank of Sri Lanka governor speaks about his return from retirement to aid Sri Lanka’s structural reforms and recapitalisation, reinforce central bank independence and develop financial resilience
One in five main models has endogenous financial sector
Benchmark highlights array of methods central banks use to model financial sector, but 40% still do not model the financial side of the economy
Economists urge BoE to be more transparent on rate paths
Value of scenario analysis depends heavily on revealing reaction function, speakers say
Most central banks forecast cash demand over one to three years
Median central bank expects 5% increase in cash in circulation in 2024
‘No compelling case’ for a Eurosystem dot-plot – Nagel
Bundesbank president says uncertainty needs to be communicated more clearly
Russia hikes rates by 200bp
Central bank is forced to update its outlook in face of soaring inflation
Malaysia’s Zeti on the key skills needed to be a successful central banker
The Bank Negara veteran speaks about leadership skills, lessons from the AFC and 1MDB crises, her scepticism of inflation targeting, and how the Asia School of Business' masters synthesises theory with practical realities
The Netherlands Bank overhauls nowcasting model
Economic dynamics have become more complicated since the pandemic, economists say
Machine learning can improve inflation forecasts – IMF paper
Model for Japan is “easily interpretable” and overcomes some drawbacks of standard models
NBER paper reviews ‘state of the art’ climate modelling
Recent breakthroughs have increased accuracy and computational efficiency of IAMs