Forecasting
Australian central bank cuts growth and jobs forecasts
RBA forecasts 10% unemployment by year’s end as official says recovery will be ‘uneven’
BoE runs ‘reverse stress test’ to prepare for renewed Covid crisis
Banks may have to take drastic “defensive actions” if UK suffers another major shock, BoE says
Researchers test forward-looking uncertainty measures
BoE paper says the measures are likely to be useful for policy-making in the face of sudden shocks
IMF outlook worsens as pandemic intensifies
Fund warns of medium-term challenges for fiscal consolidation and trade
Fed policy is too tight given FOMC projections – former Fed economist
“An outlook that bad for that long is a clear sign that policy is too tight,” Joseph Gagnon says
Bank of Spain paper presents ‘global weakness index’
System uses non-linear factor models to spot recessions in real time, researchers say
Doyne Farmer’s next big adventure: capturing the universe
Complexity theorist plans to build an economic super-simulator on a global scale
Record hiring needed to reach pre-crisis unemployment by end-2021 – paper
Hiring four times faster than most robust pace in Great Recession still not enough, researchers find
BoE paper: mining newspaper text can boost forecasts
Authors design “powerful new method” of incorporating text information into macroeconomic forecasts
Economists race to merge epidemiology and macro
Promising results are emerging, but workable forecasts may be some way off
UK economy faces 30% contraction in Q2
NIESR estimate comes as official GDP figures show sharp decline in opening stages of lockdown
IMF projects deepest recession since Great Depression
Global growth could contract by between -3% and -6% this year, World Economic Outlook shows
Kosovan central bank rolling out response to coronavirus shock
Governor Fehmi Mehmeti says economy is vulnerable but the central bank is taking action
People: Sarb and BoE renew senior appointments
Senior Sarb and BoE officials receive new terms; MAS picks new assistant managing director; and more
Canadian governor says central bank can buy corporate bonds outright
Poloz’s statement could mean Bank of Canada is considering QE, observers say
RBI economists build nowcast using dynamic factor model
Model closely tracks recent slowdown in activity, authors say
Yield curve models overstate chances of US recession – ECB research
Models need to account for effects of QE asset purchases on bond premia, authors say
Fed forecasters now less optimistic on growth – San Fran Fed paper
Forecasters have eliminated “overoptimism” bias in recent years, researchers find
ECB paper looks at professional inflation forecasters
No statistically significant evidence of some forecasters being worse than others, researcher says
Central Banking Awards 2020: third group launched
Awards unveiled for currency manager, initiative, economics, currency services, advisory and data
Currency manager: Bank of Mexico
Central bank invested in new printing plant to address capacity and concentration risks
BoE’s close rate call: what to watch
Markets had priced in 50% chance of a cut, but several economists say easing looks unlikely
IMF cuts forecast again, but says slowdown may be ending
Fresh downward revision to growth outlook set against “tentative stabilisation”, says Gita Gopinath
People: BIS picks Lamfalussy fellow; Iceland appoints research director
BIS names 2020 fellow; Icelandic central bank promotes economist; Jekaterina Govina becomes director of supervision in Lithuania