Forecasting
Kenyan central bank prepares further monetary policy reforms
Review recommends action to improve modelling, boost interbank market and develop education
Covid and the cloud: a turning point for central banks?
As central banks embrace new technology, providers are jostling to be first in line
Incoming BoE policy-maker says inflation ‘momentum’ is easing
Catherine Mann says price rises appear to be starting to taper off
Economists win prize for agent-based forecast model
Authors say theirs is the first agent-based model to produce competitive economic forecasts
Financial sector still a headache for central bank modellers
Macro-financial links are difficult to integrate into key models. But some central banks are making breakthroughs
Fed’s Quarles says time is coming for taper talk
St Louis Fed’s Bullard says it is “too early” to talk of tapering asset purchases
Fed leaders hold dovish line as CPI surges
Board members and regional presidents say inflation and employment goals still far from met
BoJ forecasts weaker inflation but stronger growth
Inflation still negative in Japan but likely to inch above zero this year, forecasts suggest
‘Bottom-up’ approach can improve inflation forecasts – BoE paper
Item-level inflation data contains useful information for forecasting, authors find
Newspaper text can improve growth forecasts – DNB research
Sentiment index can cut errors in short-term forecasts, study finds
Republican senator accuses Fed of politicising research
Toomey demands documents from San Francisco Fed on climate and racial justice studies
Barkin concerned over pandemic ‘scarring’
Richmond Fed chief says disruptions imperil access to jobs and economic growth
Fed to launch new committee on climate risk
Brainard says body will focus on systemic dangers and warns hazards are hard to forecast
Advisory services: Oliver Wyman
The consultancy has built a reputation for analytical excellence and governance expertise
Fed paper finds ways to boost forecast performance
Adding extra information can help make forecasts more accurate and robust, authors say
BoE’s Haldane warns against ‘complacency’ on inflation
Chief economist says uncertainty is high but risks are “skewed to the upside”
Corporate Services Benchmarks 2021 report – trends in financial reporting and administration
Insights on staffing and salaries, technological automation, data security, rule compliance, gender equality and green office spaces in accounting, audit, HR and administration
IMF chief economist has ‘no concerns’ over inflation in US
Biden plan likely to cause 2.25% inflation, within Fed’s framework, Gopinath says
Central banks look to shockproof models in wake of Covid-19
Covid-19 caused many central bank models to break down. Economists are now testing new tools
Economics Benchmarks 2020 report – executive summary
Shedding light on economics governance, salaries, forecasting, research, publications and more
Paper presents forecasting method for bank losses
Bank of Finland paper attempts to forecast both “expected” and “unexpected” banking losses
The changing data landscape: Part 1
Central Banking speaks to Eyal Rozen, Ramūnas Baravykas and Wanpracha Chaovalitwongse about whether there is a need to change underlying infrastructure to bolster data-driven policy-making
ECB outlines changes to forecasting during Covid
High-frequency data, GDP-at-risk, changes to use of PMI and stringency index all useful, authors say
Administrative data is most popular alternative data source
Central banks make use of a wide range of non-traditional data sources