Forecasting
Deep learning can beat other forecast methods – Bank of Korea research
Deep learning models have smaller margin of error than conventional methods, research finds
RBA expects long period of low inflation – minutes
Policy set to remain on hold, as board members say term funding is having desired effect
Bundesbank paper uses neural networks for rate forecasting
Artificial neural networks outperform linear and non-linear functions, author says
Covid-19 policy-making and the need for high-speed data
High-frequency data holds the promise of speed and adaptability, but there are drawbacks
Book notes: Radical uncertainty, by Mervyn King and John Kay
The one certainty we have faced is that we must confront uncertainty, which is precisely the point of this wonderful book
ECB paper looks at Bayesian nowcasting
BVAR models have several advantages over Dynamic Factor Models, researchers say
RBNZ boosts asset purchases and prepares new policies
Negative rates and funding for lending programme under “active preparation”
Emerging markets face L-shaped recession – paper
Researcher works back from growth forecasts to see how Covid shocks might play out
Australian central bank cuts growth and jobs forecasts
RBA forecasts 10% unemployment by year’s end as official says recovery will be ‘uneven’
BoE runs ‘reverse stress test’ to prepare for renewed Covid crisis
Banks may have to take drastic “defensive actions” if UK suffers another major shock, BoE says
Researchers test forward-looking uncertainty measures
BoE paper says the measures are likely to be useful for policy-making in the face of sudden shocks
IMF outlook worsens as pandemic intensifies
Fund warns of medium-term challenges for fiscal consolidation and trade
Fed policy is too tight given FOMC projections – former Fed economist
“An outlook that bad for that long is a clear sign that policy is too tight,” Joseph Gagnon says
Bank of Spain paper presents ‘global weakness index’
System uses non-linear factor models to spot recessions in real time, researchers say
Doyne Farmer’s next big adventure: capturing the universe
Complexity theorist plans to build an economic super-simulator on a global scale
Record hiring needed to reach pre-crisis unemployment by end-2021 – paper
Hiring four times faster than most robust pace in Great Recession still not enough, researchers find
BoE paper: mining newspaper text can boost forecasts
Authors design “powerful new method” of incorporating text information into macroeconomic forecasts
Economists race to merge epidemiology and macro
Promising results are emerging, but workable forecasts may be some way off
UK economy faces 30% contraction in Q2
NIESR estimate comes as official GDP figures show sharp decline in opening stages of lockdown
IMF projects deepest recession since Great Depression
Global growth could contract by between -3% and -6% this year, World Economic Outlook shows
Kosovan central bank rolling out response to coronavirus shock
Governor Fehmi Mehmeti says economy is vulnerable but the central bank is taking action
People: Sarb and BoE renew senior appointments
Senior Sarb and BoE officials receive new terms; MAS picks new assistant managing director; and more
Canadian governor says central bank can buy corporate bonds outright
Poloz’s statement could mean Bank of Canada is considering QE, observers say
RBI economists build nowcast using dynamic factor model
Model closely tracks recent slowdown in activity, authors say