Forecasting
IMF review finds flaws in Covid-19 response
Key departments lacked sufficient staff and fund missed surge in inflation, IEO report says
BoE tightens policy after inflation surprise
Hot February inflation figure prompted policy-makers to continue tightening
BIS paper lays out ‘two-regime’ model of inflation
Framework could help central banks recognise and respond to bouts of higher inflation
Peru holds rates for second month
Governor says economic growth likely to underperform central bank’s estimates
Rates round-up: Australia signals more tightening to come
Guatemala and West African states increase rates, while Jamaica raises reserve requirement
Australian treasurer welcomes chance to ‘refresh’ RBA board
Chalmers does not recommit to extending Philip Lowe’s term as governor
Colombia’s Villar says tight policy necessary for future growth
Governor says inflation more stubborn than in neighbours, but will fall soon
Bank of Canada officials explain monetary policy transition
Central bank publishes first record of monetary policy meeting discussions
RBA makes ninth straight rise and forecasts more to come
Governor warns Australia will be slow to achieve its inflation target
Wanted: radical ideas for inflation modelling
Hedge funds echo Mervyn King’s calls for a new approach to inflation modelling post-2022 crisis
Colombia says tightening cycle may be nearing end
Central bank board splits 5–2 on 75bp rate hike
Sarb slows rate rises as South African economy falters
Blackouts may cost up to “two percentage points” of growth this year, central bank says
‘Neglect’ of money growth may have harmed forecasts – paper
Study finds forecasters make larger errors when money growth is highest
Peru raises rates for 18th consecutive month
Inflation remains stubbornly high, but central bank is optimistic it will fall in 2023
Romania may be at end of tightening cycle
Inflation resumed upward march in November, but major bank says cycle has ended
Cook suggests US may need to change inflation models
Fed governor believes inflation on path to 2% but tight labour market remains upside risk
Bank of Japan to raise inflation forecasts, reports say
Central bank said to be likely to project nearly 2% annual inflation for 2024
FOMC waiting for ‘more evidence’ of inflation decline
December FOMC minutes show staff and policy-makers warning inflation risks remain high
Palestine weathers ‘complex crises’ but faces further slowdown
Unemployment remains high and the government’s budget under severe stress
Economics Benchmarks 2022 – executive summary
Key findings of the 2022 report, including model choices, governance structures and data use
Economics Benchmarks 2022 report – evolving models
Central banks continued to develop their modelling frameworks in 2022
Brazil and Paraguay hold rates, while Curaçao opts for rise
Inflation has almost halved in Brazil in six months since April, but board says fiscal outlook uncertain
Chile pauses rate hikes, but Peru continues tightening
Peruvian board carries on with policy meeting despite political turmoil
Bank of Canada raises rates again
Central bank notes growth is stalling and will consider if more raises are needed