Forecasting
BoE’s MPC should publish individual rate forecasts – Taylor
Newest committee member discusses r* and calls for greater transparency around forward guidance
SNB paper shows 5–6% boost in inflation forecasting
Hedged random forest method “consistently outperforms” unhedged approach
Ukraine’s Andriy Pyshnyy on the US minerals deal, ongoing reforms and post-war plans
The National Bank of Ukraine’s governor speaks about managing inflation, financial sector reform, FX reserves, international aid and actions in the event of a peace deal
BoE governor gives optimistic forecast about scenario approach
Bailey says new method allows for better projections, given growing frequency of ‘black swans’
Working group minutes: refining forecast models
Central bank economists discuss challenges of tackling errors and integrating new model features
AI forecasting outperforms traditional methods – study
New approach still only complements existing models but results are promising, say authors
Vector-based language model can improve forecasts – BIS paper
“Word embeddings” can be used to make better inflation predictions, authors find
Agent-based models come of age
Central banks are increasingly modelling the economy as a complex system
Professional long-run inflation forecasts are flawed – study
Chicago Fed research says projections are bogged down by cognitive distortions and overconfidence
Central Banking Awards 2025: second group of winners unveiled
Awards recognise growth-at-risk research, transparency, digital transformation and more
Mexico’s central bank halves growth forecast for 2025
Tariffs not incorporated in prediction model, but Banxico expects uncertainty to dampen investment
Branching paths: the Czech National Bank’s many modelling options
Three external reviews each recommended a different combination of models. The CNB now faces tough design choices, and must also decide how to upgrade its economic research
BoE’s new research agenda adds focus on balance sheet
Three-year plan responds to inflation surge, market turmoil and changed mandates
Accounting for banknotes
Three leading experts on central bank finances debate the appropriate treatment of currency
Madagascar’s governor on targeting M3 over inflation
Central Bank of Madagascar head Aivo Andrianarivelo speaks about introducing an interest rate corridor, diversifying from dollars to gold, using instant payments to bolster inclusion and drawing on IMF sustainability funding
Distributions allow better state-level forecasts – RBI paper
Authors find new method incorporating inflation and expectations can cut forecast errors
2024: The year in central banking
A look back at the biggest and most popular news stories of the year
Economics Benchmarks 2024 – model banks analysis
Additional data breakdowns reveal patterns based on staffing and development
Economics Benchmarks 2024 – executive summary
The benchmark drills into model design features as well as staffing, research and AI
Economics Benchmarks 2024 report – making models work
The benchmarks this year include more granular details on key model design features
Heterogeneous agents and non-linearities rare in main models
Semi-structural models continue to be dominant choice of main forecast model at central banks