Forecasting
ECB paper suggests faster methods for estimating eurozone employment
Nowcasting tools outperform models currently used by ECB, researchers say
BoE raises rates 25bp and ditches UK recession forecast
Central bank predicts inflation will stay higher for longer after MPC splits 7–2 on policy hike
NBER paper proposes ‘resurrecting’ non-linear Phillips curve
Original version of the curve is “strongly non-linear” and helps explain current inflation, authors say
What economists learned from Covid-19
A rush of work on ‘epi-macro’ yielded breakthroughs and then faded. Will there be lasting benefits?
Curaçao and Sint Maarten’s governor praises IMF analysis tool
Island nations are in no hurry to adopt CBDC, Richard Doornbosch says
Global economy will be ‘anaemic’ – IMF
Inflation falling, but central banks will only reach targets over 2024 and 2025
RBI pauses to assess effects of rate increases
Surprise decision comes as inflation remains outside the central bank’s target band
Rates round-up: Mexico and Colombia slow tightening
Guatemala also tightens with 25bp hike; Chile and Dominican Republic continue pauses
Bank of Israel warns political turmoil could hit GDP
Central bank slows cycle with 25bp hike, raising key rate to 4.5%
Long-term unemployment can affect inflation – BoE paper
Non-linear Phillips curve helps explain finding that breaks with previous literature
Rates round-up: Kenya raises rates to highest since 2018
Sarb adds 50bp more as economy struggles; Zimbabwe cuts 1,000bp; Mozambique holds
Rates round-up: Ghana and Thailand tighten
Many central banks in Africa, Asia and Europe still raising rates, but Angola continues cuts
IMF review finds flaws in Covid-19 response
Key departments lacked sufficient staff and fund missed surge in inflation, IEO report says
BoE tightens policy after inflation surprise
Hot February inflation figure prompted policy-makers to continue tightening
BIS paper lays out ‘two-regime’ model of inflation
Framework could help central banks recognise and respond to bouts of higher inflation
Peru holds rates for second month
Governor says economic growth likely to underperform central bank’s estimates
Rates round-up: Australia signals more tightening to come
Guatemala and West African states increase rates, while Jamaica raises reserve requirement
Australian treasurer welcomes chance to ‘refresh’ RBA board
Chalmers does not recommit to extending Philip Lowe’s term as governor
Colombia’s Villar says tight policy necessary for future growth
Governor says inflation more stubborn than in neighbours, but will fall soon
Bank of Canada officials explain monetary policy transition
Central bank publishes first record of monetary policy meeting discussions
RBA makes ninth straight rise and forecasts more to come
Governor warns Australia will be slow to achieve its inflation target
Wanted: radical ideas for inflation modelling
Hedge funds echo Mervyn King’s calls for a new approach to inflation modelling post-2022 crisis
Colombia says tightening cycle may be nearing end
Central bank board splits 5–2 on 75bp rate hike
Sarb slows rate rises as South African economy falters
Blackouts may cost up to “two percentage points” of growth this year, central bank says