Forecasting
Economics Benchmarks 2024 report – making models work
The benchmarks this year include more granular details on key model design features
Heterogeneous agents and non-linearities rare in main models
Semi-structural models continue to be dominant choice of main forecast model at central banks
Economists least likely to research impact of AI
Inflation dynamics retains position at top of the rankings
Nandalal Weerasinghe on Sri Lanka’s IMF programme, central bank reforms and road to recovery
The Central Bank of Sri Lanka governor speaks about his return from retirement to aid Sri Lanka’s structural reforms and recapitalisation, reinforce central bank independence and develop financial resilience
One in five main models has endogenous financial sector
Benchmark highlights array of methods central banks use to model financial sector, but 40% still do not model the financial side of the economy
Economists urge BoE to be more transparent on rate paths
Value of scenario analysis depends heavily on revealing reaction function, speakers say
Most central banks forecast cash demand over one to three years
Median central bank expects 5% increase in cash in circulation in 2024
‘No compelling case’ for a Eurosystem dot-plot – Nagel
Bundesbank president says uncertainty needs to be communicated more clearly
Russia hikes rates by 200bp
Central bank is forced to update its outlook in face of soaring inflation
Malaysia’s Zeti on the key skills needed to be a successful central banker
The Bank Negara veteran speaks about leadership skills, lessons from the AFC and 1MDB crises, her scepticism of inflation targeting, and how the Asia School of Business' masters synthesises theory with practical realities
The Netherlands Bank overhauls nowcasting model
Economic dynamics have become more complicated since the pandemic, economists say
Machine learning can improve inflation forecasts – IMF paper
Model for Japan is “easily interpretable” and overcomes some drawbacks of standard models
NBER paper reviews ‘state of the art’ climate modelling
Recent breakthroughs have increased accuracy and computational efficiency of IAMs
North Macedonia develops new DSGE model
Analytical tool to supplement existing models built in conjunction with CNB and IMF
Interpreting the PBoC’s slew of policy reforms
How are new stimulus measures, bond market tactics, deflationary pressures and monetary policy framework changes affecting central banking in China?
BoC paper offers monetary policy ‘decision synthesis’
Authors say model combination method helps capture complexities of decision-making
Central banks need to avoid ‘overconfidence’, says RBA’s Hauser
Deputy governor warns against 'false prophets' when forecasting with point estimates
Central Bank of Kenya upgrades nowcasting platform
Package of forecasting reforms is part of ongoing policy “modernisation”
BoE economists hunt ‘driving forces’ of forecast errors
“Systematic” study of mistakes finds wage growth and expectations could have been modelled better
BNM’s Rasheed on inflation, growth and currency performance in emerging markets
Bank Negara Malaysia’s governor speaks about balancing inflation and growth, supporting the ringgit, multilateral currency settlement and greening Islamic finance
Half of central banks use forecast errors to assess policy impact
Surveys of expectations widely used but surveys of trust and understanding are less common
Simpler models can capture dynamics of Hank framework – NBER paper
Heterogeneity can be “irrelevant” to determining output in some situations, authors find
ECB cuts policy rate by 25 basis points
Strong eurozone wage growth rules out commitment to further cuts, says governing council
Lkhagvasuren Byadran on geopolitics, gold and 100 years of central banking on the steppe
Bank of Mongolia governor Lkhagvasuren Byadran speaks about monetary and financial reform, embracing AI and fintech, and Mongolia’s new SWF