Forecasting
BoE publishes terms of reference for Bernanke review
Former Fed chair to provide insights into how to forecast in “significant uncertainty”
FOMC members’ narratives add value to projections, finds paper
Both staff and FOMC members 'projections aid forecasting, refuting Romer and Romer
Latin America roundup: Brazil makes second 50bp rate cut
Paraguay eases rates down, while Costa Rica holds as negative inflation continues
Bank of England pauses for first time since December 2021
MPC votes 5–4 to halt cycle amid slowing inflation and a sluggish economy
Canadian official says mortgage rates not big cause of inflation
Kozicki says taking home loans out would make only small dent in core reading
Jackson Hole in the wake of policy rules
Symposium heralds a shift to relying on incoming data and judgement, rather than rules or even formal models, to hit inflation targets, writes Barry Eichengreen
Jordan revamps forecast model with richer interactions
Jam2.0 adds a fiscal block and captures more complexities of central bank policy
Lagarde envisions new model for world of ‘shifts and breaks’
ECB chief predicts bigger supply shocks and relative price swings in future
RBNZ holds policy rate but revises up projection
Central bank expects rate to stay higher for longer and raises estimate of neutral rate
Focus is needed on improving central bank forecasts
Charles Goodhart believes tougher action over forecasting errors is preferable to policy-maker performance-related pay
BoE paper analyses banks’ forecasting accuracy
Banks with better governance, including more senior women, make better predictions, authors find
BoE raises rate 25bp as ‘mixed’ data clouds outlook
“I don’t think it is time to declare it is all over,” Bailey says
AI can forecast inflation more accurately than professionals – St Louis Fed
Large language models may be powerful tools but have some drawbacks, researchers say
Bernanke to lead BoE review of inflation forecasting
Former Federal Reserve chair will work with Bank of England officials
Monetary Policy Benchmarks 2023 report – navigating uncertainty
Benchmark data highlights ongoing evolution in policy frameworks as central banks move beyond the pandemic – and into the high-inflation period
Guillermo Avellán on BCE independence, capacity-building and dollarisation
Central Bank of Ecuador general manager speaks about the need to bolster the central bank’s legal autonomy, dollarisation challenges, payments developments and monetising local gold production
Machine learning pushes frontier of forecasting
AI techniques are starting to transform central banks’ statistical modelling. They could soon revolutionise structural models as well
Researchers use natural language processing to estimate inflation
Applying NLP techniques to earnings calls provides useful economic indicators, paper says
ECB’s monetary policy is taking effect rapidly, says Lane
But chief economist warns tighter financing conditions could cause eurozone contraction
Advanced economies most likely to survey trust and understanding
Data shows differences in how central banks judge the effectiveness of monetary policy
Latin America: Brazil holds rates despite president’s attack
Chilean board also holds policy, while Costa Rica cuts after inflation goes below target
Switzerland and Norway raise rates
Norges Bank expects further increases while SNB does not rule them out
BoE makes surprise 50bp rate increase
Central bank to review modelling framework after repeated forecast errors
To govern well, manage ‘enterprise’ risk
Effective risk management should be governance-oriented and top-down; not operationally oriented and bottom-up, writes John Mendzela