Forecasting
Costa Rica and Paraguay whittle away at rates
Both countries make 25bp cuts as inflation falls
Philippine central bank delivers off-cycle rate hike
Governor Remolona said high inflation expectations were ‘very worrisome’
Bank of Korea continues rate pause
Central bank cites ‘uncertainties’ in deciding to hold
Brazil board united on continuing easing with 50bp cuts
Deputy governor says “there is no predefined target for Selic” rate
Israeli economy and budget will remain resilient, says Yaron
Bank of Israel governor expects inflation will return to target on schedule
Inflation set to remain high into 2025, IMF warns
Soft landing looks more likely but growth is “limping along”, says Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas
Peru and Uruguay cut rates again
Peru’s central bank says growth forecasts are gloomy, but Uruguay hints at end to cuts
Canadian deputy governor warns of repeating pricing pressures
Vincent argues supply shocks, technology and consolidation may make raising prices easier
Fed leaders split on whether further rate rise is needed
Leaders agree a soft landing is possible but not certain
Colombian and Caribbean central banks hold rates
Colombian board ignores government’s call for cut, while Jamaica and Dominican Republic also hold
Mexico and Guatemala continue to hold rates
Inflation is still falling, but Banxico expects rates will stay high for some time
Monetary policy tops US CFOs’ concerns
Survey finds high rates curtailing spending in 40% of firms
BoT unexpectedly raises policy rate by 25bp
Central bank cut inflation and growth forecasts for 2023, but raises next year’s projections
BoE publishes terms of reference for Bernanke review
Former Fed chair to provide insights into how to forecast in “significant uncertainty”
FOMC members’ narratives add value to projections, finds paper
Both staff and FOMC members 'projections aid forecasting, refuting Romer and Romer
Latin America roundup: Brazil makes second 50bp rate cut
Paraguay eases rates down, while Costa Rica holds as negative inflation continues
Bank of England pauses for first time since December 2021
MPC votes 5–4 to halt cycle amid slowing inflation and a sluggish economy
Canadian official says mortgage rates not big cause of inflation
Kozicki says taking home loans out would make only small dent in core reading
Jackson Hole in the wake of policy rules
Symposium heralds a shift to relying on incoming data and judgement, rather than rules or even formal models, to hit inflation targets, writes Barry Eichengreen
Jordan revamps forecast model with richer interactions
Jam2.0 adds a fiscal block and captures more complexities of central bank policy
Lagarde envisions new model for world of ‘shifts and breaks’
ECB chief predicts bigger supply shocks and relative price swings in future
RBNZ holds policy rate but revises up projection
Central bank expects rate to stay higher for longer and raises estimate of neutral rate
Focus is needed on improving central bank forecasts
Charles Goodhart believes tougher action over forecasting errors is preferable to policy-maker performance-related pay
BoE paper analyses banks’ forecasting accuracy
Banks with better governance, including more senior women, make better predictions, authors find