Forecasting
Armenian governor argues for ‘paradigm shift’ in forecasting
Base case should be abandoned in favour of multiple scenarios, says Martin Galstyan
Georgieva says Argentina needs permanent fix to FX problems
IMF releases latest $3.8bn financing tranche, as market inflation forecasts reach 100%
IMF publishes sober outlook for 2023
“Worst is yet to come”, says chief economist
Four more African central banks raise rates
Ghana raises policy rate to highest level since 2017, plus hikes in Uganda, Sierra Leone and Tunisia
Colombian president criticises central bank’s rate increases
Finance minister argues tighter policy could bring recession without reducing inflation
Inflation: what went wrong, and why?
Charles Goodhart and Manoj Pradhan detail three theories on the causes of high inflation, as well as their implications for policy responses
Fed raises interest rate 75bp for third time
Powell reiterates pledge to “keep at it” until inflation is back to 2%
Economy’s ‘first responders’ now in the line of fire
Forceful but late interventions to combat inflation raise the risk of central bank overreactions
UK inflation dips below 10%
Lower fuel costs bring down headline figure, but underlying inflation remains strong
RBA’s Lowe admits inflation models need rethink
Governor acknowledges forecasting mistakes but rejects calls to resign
BoE policy-makers debate more aggressive tightening
New government and “extreme volatility” in energy markets complicate outlook
ECB’s Lane and Schnabel strike different notes on eurozone inflation
Schnabel says “right tail” shift could herald de-anchoring, but Lane says other outcomes are possible
Decision theory can guide climate modelling, Nobel laureate says
Lars Peter Hansen argues policy-makers need to pay more attention to uncertainty
RBA sets up new panel of private-sector economists
Expert panel will meet at least twice a year; move follows “embarrassing” forecasting issues
RBNZ delivers fourth straight 50bp rate hike
New Zealand’s central bank now expects rate to peak 15bp higher, at 4.1%
Long-term data can shed light on current inflation – NBER paper
Authors suggest first half of 20th century has clearer parallel to current inflation than 1970s
How central bank mistakes after 2019 led to inflation
Central banks must acknowledge their own mistakes and outline concrete steps to restore the public’s confidence in their ability to ensure price stability, write Graeme Wheeler and Bryce Wilkinson*
The case for restoring the role of monetary aggregates
Tim Congdon argues that a surge in money supply in response to Covid-19 sparked heightened inflation and central banks need to refocus their attention on monetary aggregates
Czech central bank halts tightening
Many had expected new governor and board to take dovish turn
Australian government to review RBA mandate and governance
Review will look into the board structure and performance, after RBA suffers criticism over policy choices
Rethinking regulation of the modern financial system
Bank of Italy’s Maurizio Trapanese writes that rules need to address uncertainty as well as measurable risks, entity types as well as activities, and should not be overly complex
BoE’s Pill says focus is on slower-moving elements of inflation
Policy-makers trying to walk “narrow path” as they resist second-round effects of high inflation
Quarterly forecast updates are the norm at central banks
Forecasting tends to be a collaborative exercise between staff and policy-makers
Top central bankers admit inflation models fell short
Reliance on Phillips curve and demand-driven models may have created blind spots