Economics
Policy-makers and staff often determine headline forecasts
Joint approach may help conquer systemic bias
Majority of central banks do not take account of forecast errors
Surveys of inflationary expectations used widely, alongside macroeconomic and market indicators
Some philosophical questions about the future of central banking
Kenneth Rogoff weighs up the many challenges facing central banks in the years ahead, from debt and inflation to negative rates and the dangers of ‘mission creep’
Dutch households to keep most pandemic savings
DNB still expects strong recovery in household consumption if social distancing measures are lifted
Jackson Hole conference switches to online-only model
Kansas City Fed cancels Wyoming get-together, citing Delta variant
How we can improve gender diversity in economics
Mary Suiter and Oksana Leukhina say gender diversity in economics must be championed
Eurozone returns to growth in Q2
Employment increases, but economic expansion is uneven across economies
Link between US labour costs and inflation has weakened – ECB paper
US can sustain robust labour markets without risking inflation outbreak, researchers say
People: Georgia names new vice-governor
IMF appoints director of HR; Kuwaiti emir makes delayed board appointments; Indonesia shuffles regional reps
Why diversity matters for economic policy
The head of the Cleveland Fed's new Program for Economic Inclusion, Dionissi Aliprantis, explains why diversity should be an important factor in the US central bank's decision-making
The IMF’s $650bn SDR allocation and a future ‘digital SDR’
Focus is needed on widening SDR use in payments and the creation of a ‘digital SDR’, to support a large allocation of ‘official’ IMF SDRs, writes Warren Coats
Ignoring fire sales weakens stress tests – Bank of Austria paper
Paper presents new method for calculating effects of deleveraging by distressed banks
BoE’s Vlieghe: central bankers must speak up about economic fragility
Outgoing MPC member says impact of debt and inequality is “stark”, but goes beyond central banking
Macro-pru can help avoid ‘reversal interest rate’ – Bundesbank paper
Use of capital ratios can aid eurozone monetary policy, researchers say
Paper analyses eurozone consumers’ inflation expectations
Short-term views, trust and Covid-19 shaped medium-term expectations – Bank of Finland paper
BdF paper analyses inflation tolerance ranges
Ranges “should not be zones of inaction” and may have unfavourable trade-offs, researchers say
South African Reserve Bank: the first 100 years
Central bankers and academics reflect on a tumultuous first century for Africa’s oldest central bank
Vast majority of central banks provide communications training
Social media, writing skills and public speaking emerged as key areas
Academics miss out on central bank background briefings
After journalists, private sector analysts are offered briefings most often
ECB paper investigates macro-pru’s impact on inequality
More research is needed on how borrower-based measures affect income inequality, researchers say
Communications often involved at early stages of central bank policy
Most central banks say comms teams are involved in early planning stage of policy decisions
Rising spillover risks from macro-prudential policies
Tools used to restrict credit in specific sectors can increase the riskiness of credit in other areas, creating challenges in the use of household-specific and corporate credit-calming measures, write Lucyna Górnicka and Apoorv Bhargava
MAS’s Vincent Loy and Celine Sia on transforming data management
The assistant managing directors explain how uniting business and technology functions is opening up new possibilities for data collection, governance and analytics
Bank of Italy paper uses agent-based model of housing market
Limits on borrowing are effective but not currently needed for Italian housing sector