Economics
Lifetime achievement: Charles Goodhart
The LSE and BoE veteran economist has his own ‘law’, and played a key role in the establishment of monetary policy in the UK, Hong Kong’s peg and the ‘New Zealand model’, which influenced a generation of central bankers
Paper models link between policy uncertainty and growth
Bank of Luxembourg paper looks at how investors adjust their estimates of monetary policy
Paper examines US pensions’ effects on natural rate
Welfare effects of possible reforms depends on productivity growth, Bank of Italy paper finds
Bank of Spain paper analyses regulations’ complexity
Researchers present new method for assessing regulations’ structural and linguistic complexity
Book notes: Capital and ideology, by Thomas Piketty
A political pamphlet like Milton’s ‘Areopagitica’, but longer
Bank of Italy paper uses Twitter to track inflation expectations
New method’s data gives a “good real-time proxy” for consumers’ expectations – researchers
How valuable is a PhD economist?
Heads of research from Canada, Israel and North Macedonia weigh the benefits of advanced economics education – and the challenge of retaining top staff
Riksbank proposes larger transfer to Swedish Treasury
Central bank would provide Skr6.8 billion to the government in 2021
Evidence of central bank research bias is ‘mixed’ – RBA paper
Results contrast with another recent study that found bias in research on QE
Central banks look to shockproof models in wake of Covid-19
The Covid-19 crisis caused many central bank models to break down. Economists at the St Louis Fed, Bank of Spain and ECB were quick to innovate and say they will continue testing new tools
Fed small business survey paints grim picture
Most small businesses report revenue declines; many fear collapse without government aid
Epidemics cause delayed political unrest – IMF paper
Infectious disease outbreaks lead to upheaval after health crisis has passed, researchers say
Draghi accepts task of leading next Italian government
Former ECB president must first secure enough parliamentary support to become prime minister
Monetary unions might benefit from taxing external debt – DNB paper
Policy would reduce adverse effects of shocks to risk premia on sovereign debt, researchers find
More capital could increase lending during pandemic – paper
Philadelphia Fed research finds capital injections and lower requirements would both increase lending
IMF’s Georgieva highlights pandemic impact in Latin America
GDP contraction is forecast to be 8% of GDP in 2020, double the level for the global economy
Economics Benchmarks 2020 report – executive summary
Shedding light on economics governance, salaries, forecasting, research, publications and more
Higher economic uncertainty is harbinger of civil conflict – Bank of Spain research
Spain suffered rising levels of economic uncertainty leading up to 1936–39 civil war
The changing data landscape: Part 1
Central Banking speaks to Eyal Rozen, Ramūnas Baravykas and Wanpracha Chaovalitwongse about whether there is a need to change underlying infrastructure to bolster data-driven policy-making
US may face ‘jobless recovery’ despite huge stimulus
Economists warn fiscal stimulus has been poorly targeted; Ben Bernanke defends Fed policy
Tourism acts as Covid-19 amplifier in the eurozone
Shock is increasing fragmentation risks in the region due to its uneven effect across countries
2020: The year in review
The past 12 months have been marked by crisis-fighting and losses, but also innovation
Economics Benchmarks 2020 – presentation
Central Banking’s economics subject matter specialist Daniel Hinge speaks with Christopher Jeffery about how central bank economists fared in a year where the Covid-19 pandemic upended the usual business of forecasting, analysis and research
Size matters for central bank research publishing
Staff numbers have strongest association with central banks’ research output