Research
IMF says Ghana should change law to prevent monetary financing
Directors commend recent progress in reducing inflation but call for stronger safeguards
Government spending can have low multipliers at ZLB – Bank of Italy paper
Model’s results are in line with recent empirical evidence, researchers say
Bank of Canada paper offers advice on digital currency policy
Framework designed to help policymakers weigh up various forms of digital money
ECB’s sovereign bond purchases may increase volatility, DNB paper says
Researchers say their findings could have important lessons for “tapering” programmes
High-frequency data could improve GDP estimates – RBI researchers
Initial data releases tend to be revised upwards, the authors find
Party politics may influence German banks’ bond holdings, ECB paper finds
Researchers examine effects of local elections on decisions by local savings banks
Bank of Canada paper analyses benefits of higher inflation target
Success of higher target hinges on use of unconventional monetary policy and the level of real interest rates
Bundesbank paper asks ‘how far can we forecast?’
Statistical tests imply forecasts typically become uninformative after just a few quarters
Liquidity build-ups may cause emerging market instability – Bundesbank paper
Bundesbank paper examines effects of advanced economies’ liquidity on emerging economies
Swedish paper examines effects of business cycles on employment
Volatile business cycles cut the number of new jobs and employment, Riksbank paper says; analysis uses labour market search model to track effects
Few US low-wage workers progress in labour market – Fed research
Only 5% had a better job within one year, and the group is more likely to become unemployed
US steel tariffs likely to damage labour market – NY Fed research
Exporters who need steel imports face higher input costs, possibly leading to lower employment
BoE paper investigates uncertainty around elections
Elections help to isolate macroeconomic and financial uncertainty, author argues
Higher expenditure in services limits trade growth – Fed paper
Growth of trade in 1990s and 2000s may be anomalous, researchers say
Satellite night-time light data could forecast US exports – Fed paper
Night-time lights offer a quick and accurate picture of economic activity, researchers say
Fed forecasts overcompensate for trend deviations, paper says
Federal Reserve tends to “overpredict” growth when the economy is running below trend
More older people and women joining labour force, RBNZ paper finds
New Zealand’s labour force participation has grown since 2000 and reached an all-time high in 2017
Real rates likely to move back up – BIS paper
Use of “shadow rate” allows authors to account for the effective lower bound
Lower inflation in LatAm threatened by debt, says World Bank’s Vegh
Public debt for Latin American region tops 50% of GDP
BoE paper hunts for shifts in forecast accuracy
Authors outline new method of detecting when forecasts break down
US labour participation rate down more than OECD average – Dallas Fed
Higher incarceration rates and worse social services may partly explain trend
Chinese housing markets need to make ‘painful adjustment’ – IMF paper
Authors suggest governments set up body to ensure liquidity is available for housing market if prices fall suddenly
Brexit will hit Irish economy hard, Banque de France paper finds
Researchers look at cost of undoing European Union’s single market
FSI finds divergent practices on non-performing assets
Study finds it is hard to make “meaningful comparisons” of troubled assets across jurisdictions