Research
Swedish paper examines effects of business cycles on employment
Volatile business cycles cut the number of new jobs and employment, Riksbank paper says; analysis uses labour market search model to track effects
Few US low-wage workers progress in labour market – Fed research
Only 5% had a better job within one year, and the group is more likely to become unemployed
US steel tariffs likely to damage labour market – NY Fed research
Exporters who need steel imports face higher input costs, possibly leading to lower employment
BoE paper investigates uncertainty around elections
Elections help to isolate macroeconomic and financial uncertainty, author argues
Higher expenditure in services limits trade growth – Fed paper
Growth of trade in 1990s and 2000s may be anomalous, researchers say
Satellite night-time light data could forecast US exports – Fed paper
Night-time lights offer a quick and accurate picture of economic activity, researchers say
Fed forecasts overcompensate for trend deviations, paper says
Federal Reserve tends to “overpredict” growth when the economy is running below trend
More older people and women joining labour force, RBNZ paper finds
New Zealand’s labour force participation has grown since 2000 and reached an all-time high in 2017
Real rates likely to move back up – BIS paper
Use of “shadow rate” allows authors to account for the effective lower bound
Lower inflation in LatAm threatened by debt, says World Bank’s Vegh
Public debt for Latin American region tops 50% of GDP
BoE paper hunts for shifts in forecast accuracy
Authors outline new method of detecting when forecasts break down
US labour participation rate down more than OECD average – Dallas Fed
Higher incarceration rates and worse social services may partly explain trend
Chinese housing markets need to make ‘painful adjustment’ – IMF paper
Authors suggest governments set up body to ensure liquidity is available for housing market if prices fall suddenly
Brexit will hit Irish economy hard, Banque de France paper finds
Researchers look at cost of undoing European Union’s single market
FSI finds divergent practices on non-performing assets
Study finds it is hard to make “meaningful comparisons” of troubled assets across jurisdictions
Financial conditions in Denmark tighten in Q1
Implementation of new mortgage lending regulation is the main cause of credit reduction
China's policy transmission increasingly similar to advanced economies – BIS paper
Authors say monetary policy surprises have “sizeable” effects on interest rates in China
Return on foreign assets partly offsets trade imbalances – research
Emerging economies can recover from current account disequilibrium faster than reserve currency issuers
RBA paper offers new way to add housing sector to DSGE models
Authors find their model delivers “reasonable” forecast performance
High-denomination notes still needed, says De La Rue
Banknote firm says high denominations make up an increasingly large proportion of banknotes in circulation thanks to inflation
ECB paper proposes eurozone stabilisation policy based on trade changes
Scheme would avoid moral hazard or permanent transfers from one country, authors argue
Bundesbank paper looks at cross-border cycles in six European economies
Equity prices and interest rates more strongly synchronised than real economic activity – researchers
High-frequency data helps capture ‘psychological subtlety’ – BoJ paper
Study of “tick-by-tick” data finds markets have become more sensitive to the central bank’s policy announcements
Issing sees ‘uncertain future’ for central bank independence
The eurozone architect warns central banks that overreach open themselves to political attack