Research
Paper warns emerging markets of pitfalls of credit easing
While the effects of credit easing are benign for advanced economies, developing and emerging countries may experience macroeconomic repercussions
RBNZ paper investigates weaker pass-through since 2008
Banks’ use of more stable funding sources seems to have weakened the effect of policy rate changes since 2008
Yield curve inversion still tends to signal trouble ahead – Fed economists
The term spread has a “strikingly accurate record” for forecasting recessions, and this time looks to be no different, say researchers
Divestments based on ethical grounds reduce returns of Norway’s fund
The exclusions trimmed cumulative returns on the equity index by 3.3% since 2004
IMF paper looks at how inflation anchoring affects growth
Authors examine whether low inflation and anchoring inflation are positive for growth
NY Fed paper studies when government should issue safe assets
Model implies only under certain situations should the government issue new debt; changing inflation target might be superior
ECB policy statements have moved inflation expectations – Italian paper
Researchers look at impact of ECB’s recent monetary policy statements on financial markets
Tighter policy policy may increase financial instability, researcher says
Higher rates may pressure banks’ balance sheets and increase assets held by money market funds, says paper published by San Francisco Fed
ECB paper models impact of monetary policy announcements
Model tries to “disentangle” impact of two kinds of information
Italian paper looks at eurozone firms' capital costs
Fall in borrowing costs in periphery due to balance sheet improvements, researchers find
Sovereign debt more ‘enforceable’ – ECB paper
Results show creditors have used courts to “pressure” foreign governments, resulting in restricted access to capital markets
High corporate debt harms Italy’s productivity, IMF research says
Policymakers should look at discouraging structural corporate debt, researchers say
‘Job polarisation’ drives US men out of labour markets – Kansas City Fed paper
Technological change and globalisation reduce demand for skills of young and unskilled men
Global uncertainty increases financial interconnections – paper
Researchers use a network approach to evaluate financial interconnectedness
Researchers develop new index to measure geopolitical risk
Heightened threats slow growth and equities returns in advanced economies, paper finds
IMF stresses communication’s role in fostering stability
Neglecting its importance can lead to adverse reactions, such as misinterpretation of policies
Fed paper examines financial spillovers of US monetary policy
Authors find that conventional and unconventional policies create different spillover effects
Italian consumer lending more risk-priced post-2008 – paper
Institutions tightened lending to consumers based on household factors
Swedish inflation falls in January as Riksbank considers first hike
The CPI at fixed interest rates fell to 1.7% in January, compared with forecasts of 1.9%
Post-crisis fiscal cuts boosted solvency without harming liquidity – DNB paper
Dutch paper uses yield spreads to analyse impact of consolidation announcements on investor perception of government solvency
BIS paper uses ‘shadow rate’ to study market expectations
Fan Dora Xia and Jing Cynthia Wu find they can estimate expectations over a longer horizon by using a shadow rate term structure model
Reserve managers made financial crisis worse for central banks – paper
Synchronised withdrawal of funds from commercial banks made central bank stabilisation efforts “more difficult”, IMF paper says
Algo trading harmed market during Swiss franc crash – paper
Algorithmic traders tended to “consume liquidity and reinforce the price disruption”
NY Fed paper measures global capital flow pressures
The authors’ method allows them to estimate how sensitive countries are to changes in global risk aversion, as well as overcoming problems with capital flow data