Research
Housing bubbles can boost credit supply, Spanish paper finds
Evidence of Spanish housing bubble show banks boosting credit supply, researchers say
Paper looks at impact of financial shocks on US labour markets
Negative shocks have far bigger effects than positive ones, researchers find
Forecasting yield curve inversion is hard – Cleveland Fed research
Inversions may be a “harbinger of recession” but seeing them coming is difficult, says economist
Monetarist perspective affects normalisation forecasts – Chicago Fed paper
Incorporating money demand into projections affects forecasts of remittances and money multiplier
FSI paper urges supervisors to develop ‘suptech strategy’
Supervisors are well placed to benefit from technology but need a clear plan, says the paper from Basel’s FSI
BoE paper reports ‘lab experiment’ on banker bonuses
Test subjects tended to take larger risks when their bonuses could not be taken away
Weak US productivity behind low wage growth – IMF
Declining labour share of income is another contributing factor
GDP growth only raises profits for some banks – Bank of Italy paper
Banks with large loan portfolios benefit from GDP growth – researchers
Competitive housing markets fostered risk taking before crisis – IMF research
In areas with higher price volatility institutions lowered lending standards
Fed paper builds dynamic factor model for nowcasting
Model produces “reasonably good” estimates of Ecuadorian GDP and outperforms other models
IMF paper praises Chilean central bank’s forward guidance
Central bank’s monetary policy predictability and efficacy was “quite high”
Financial literacy of Italians below G20 average – Bank of Italy
Less than half of survey respondents are able to calculate a simple interest rate
Higher capital ratios trade growth for stability – Philadelphia Fed paper
Better capitalised banks reduce lending rates, researcher says
KYC regulation impinging on financial inclusion – Sarb
Fintech firms could help under-served customers through a “digital identity”, which will allow banks to identify customers without them having to visit branches in person
ECB’s QE has dampened volatility in Eastern Europe – BoI paper
End to ECB asset purchases might increase volatility in EU-6, researchers say
NY Fed paper: ‘replacement hiring’ affects productivity wage gap
Replacement hiring can explain much of the gap between wages and productivity, authors say
Bank of Finland paper calls digital currency a ‘fallacy’
Crypto assets highlight how poorly understood money is today – BoF official
Low rates contribute to higher deposits in Denmark
Bank deposits amount to 60% and household deposits 45% of GDP
NY Fed research ‘stress tests’ household balance sheets
Authors say it is “crucial” to track household leverage; vulnerability in the US “remains elevated”
BIS paper outlines lower-bound risk model
Model estimates probability of hitting ELB, helping to guide policy
Businesses less willing to accept cash payments – Atlanta Fed
Increasing number of businesses are becoming reluctant to accept low-value cash payments
Money matters for macro fluctuations – Fed paper
Working paper says previous research by Schularick and Taylor may have been flawed
Employer-employee loans can cut credit risk - Minneapolis Fed article
Research looks at Minnesota scheme
Richmond Fed economists design bank resolvability score
Score could help make complex living wills easier to interpret, authors argue