Research
Summers and co-authors find negative rates can be contractionary
Policy rate cuts below zero can lead to higher lending rates by commercial banks, authors find
Growth keeping global debt-to-GDP just below all-time high – IIF
Latest monitoring report puts debt at three times global GDP, with some countries especially vulnerable
Low US unemployment unlikely to foster sudden wage growth – research
Fed projections see unemployment rate falling to 3.5% by the end of 2019
Adoption of a privately-issued digital currency can reduce social welfare, researchers find
Optimal policy can be achieved through central bank digital currency, authors say
US equity prices affect consumer and business confidence, researcher finds
Results highlight risks to macroeconomy of recent equity slump
EU labour mobility is cyclical stabiliser – paper
Common market allows migration from countries with high unemployment to markets looking for workers
Employers alter skill demands in line with unemployment, researchers find
Requirements for a bachelor’s degree increased during higher unemployment, authors find
Spending behaviour in unemployment does not fit with rational models – paper
Behavioural models of “present-biased or myopic” choices fit better with the data, authors say
India vulnerable to oil shocks – RBI research
Study weighs effects of oil shocks on current account, inflation and government finances
US interbank market may not recover from QE – Fed paper
Authors warn shrinking the Fed balance sheet might not be enough to revive the market
Conventional models beat machine learning in predicting crises, paper finds
Bundesbank paper contrasts performance of logit approach to machine learning
Lower interest rates make risky investments more likely – BoE paper
Gains from gambling increase when rates are low, researcher argues
Price shocks worse with poorly anchored inflation expectations – IMF paper
Inflation rises less and falls quicker after shocks when expectations are well anchored, study finds
Low rates can encourage risk-taking – BoE paper
Author models the risk-taking channel of monetary policy alongside a “bankruptcy channel”
Diverging regulatory policies could spell trouble for banks, report says
Deloitte says there are obvious signs of regulatory divergence as regulators and supervise focus on national policies
‘Key currencies’ affect patterns of global imbalances – BIS paper
Authors say it is important to think about a “dollar zone” not just the dollar
Causes of liquidity traps are ‘crucial’ to policy response – BdF paper
Liquidity traps caused by investor deleveraging may not respond to QE, researchers say
EME banks have ‘substantially’ increased global footprint – BIS research
Study finds emerging market banks have taken a greater role as their home economies have grown
Fed’s communications may outweigh rate changes – Bundesbank paper
Researchers look at impact of Fed announcements and policy changes from 1994 to 2008
Releasing liquidity can encourage banks’ ‘gambling’, ECB paper argues
ECB paper analyses Portuguese authorities’ response to banking crisis
Google’s data tool has potential for countries with data gaps – IMF research
Authors explore how search queries can be used to track human behaviour, which could be used to map macroeconomic indicators
Yield curve inversions may become more frequent, researchers say
Richmond Fed study examines relationship between term premium and yield curve inversion
Fed paper examines impact of liquidity rules on dealers
Dealers changed behaviour in response to reforms, but de-risking was already under way, paper finds
BoE paper outlines DSGE model of financial and real frictions
“Channels of effect” run between financial markets and labour markets, authors find