Research
Bank of Italy paper looks at impact of long-term rates
Long-term rates have significant impact on Italian banks’ risk appetite, researchers find
New IMF data reveals non-banks drive capital flows when global risks rise
Evidence can be used to analyse how changes in industry mix can impact capital flow volatility, researchers say
Trade protection leads to recessions in the long run – Bank of Canada researcher
Some policies can provide temporary booms in the short run, Yuko Imura finds
Risk of hitting ZLB in next three years is low – San Francisco Fed paper
ZLB should not be a concern for monetary policy at this stage, researcher says
Changes in uncertainty can affect US long-term rates – ECB paper
Researchers say “uncertainty shocks” may account for about one-half of long-run rate changes
Tighter loan-to-value ratios have stronger impact than a reduction
Other regulations might impact the effectiveness of LTV limits, the authors say
San Francisco Fed researcher seeks to improve Phillips curve
Introducing an “interaction variable” can increase predictive performance, researcher says
Market power is a ‘puzzle’, BoE team says
Micro and macro evidence do not seem to match up, the authors say
Macro-prudential and monetary policy work well together – ECB paper
Monetary policy can be used to cushion shocks caused by counter-cyclical buffers, researchers find
Williams favours average inflation targeting in new research
New York Fed president analyses three groups of inflation-targeting regimes
Bank of Italy paper presents new financial stress indicator
New model identifies financial stresses missed by others, authors say
Bank profitability is associated with lower systemic risk – IMF paper
Over-reliance on non-interest income can increase institutional and systemic risk, researchers find
ECB paper looks at eurozone banks’ exposure to securities
Granular study of eurozone securities can help analysis of financial crisis contagion, study argues
Liquidity strain heightened since September – IMF’s GFSR
Regulations and investment innovations could be driving factors, the IMF report says
IMF researchers present guide to enabling negative interest rates
Exchange rate between cash and bank reserves is the “best approach”, researchers say
Sluggish investment was key factor in weak post-crisis recovery – IMF research
Output losses affected countries regardless of whether they had suffered a banking crisis
State-backed mortgages promote little homeownership – Fed paper
Guarantees can lead to inflated house prices, researchers warn
Financial openness key for monetary spillovers – RBA research
Trade flows appear not to contribute to interest rate correlation
Higher EU corporate bond spreads in 2018 unrelated to ECB policy – research
Global trade disputes played a bigger role than the end of the European asset purchase programme
Equity market uncertainty can reduce real GDP – researcher
Equity market volatility in Q4 2018 could reduce the policy rate path by 50bp, says researcher
Consensus over Fed inflation target shifted during Great Recession – San Fran Fed
Up until the 2008 crisis, most FOMC participants preferred a 1.5% target, researchers find
Hard IMF conditions deter borrowers from coming back – ECB paper
Researchers use data on most IMF programmes since 1992 to investigate “IMF stigma”
Google data can underpin eurozone GDP nowcasts – Banque de France paper
Researchers say method is particularly useful when official data is unavailable
‘Does the Fed know more about the economy?’ asks San Francisco Fed
Researcher compares Fed and private sector growth forecasts