Research
Inflation edges higher as Fed prepares for next meeting
Consumer spending boosts economy, but recent sentiment data suggests it could be about change
Fears about eurozone countries weigh on credit creation – research
Perceptions of weakness at individual banks are less important – Bank of Portugal paper
BIS paper studies spread of global currency trading
Authors examine “patterns of diffusion” to understand rise of the renminbi
Negative rates could lower inflation expectations – San Fran Fed paper
Japanese inflation expectations fell after BoJ introduced negative rates, researchers find
BdF paper looks at FOMC hawks and doves
Predictions of rate-setters with hawkish reputations often biased towards higher inflation – researcher
Market competition fuels volatility in frail regulatory environments – Bank of Spain research
Increased instability associated with higher default rate triggers a 3.3% loss of output
Economists publish ‘crash course’ on euro crisis
Brunnermeier and Reis say framework is designed to help students grasp the macro-financial roots of recent crises
Prices more responsive in longer buyer-seller relationships – NY Fed paper
Pass-through of exchange rate shocks could decrease during recession, research finds
Interbank rate uncertainty raises cost of credit – ECB paper
“Novel measure” helps authors judge effect of disruptions to interbank markets
Estonian paper looks at Eastern European credit
Lack of competition in banking sectors is fueling pro-cyclical credit creation, researchers find
Foreign banks in US made sharpest reserve cuts – Kansas Fed paper
Researchers look at impact of Fed’s quantitative tightening on US banks’ assets
AI can help predict consumer defaults – NBER paper
Researchers say “deep learning” could be useful in designing macro-prudential policies
Macro-prudential policy needs range of tools – Bundesbank paper
Model assesses effectiveness of capital buffers, LTV ratios and sectoral risk-weighting
Anticipation of fiscal stimulus has ‘sizeable’ impact on growth – paper
Passing the 2018 US Bipartisan Budget Act increased GDP by 1%, researchers find
Market-based metrics are best signal for bank distress – IMF paper
Researcher finds vulnerabilities in large eurozone banks, while North America is least distressed region
Bank of Portugal paper assesses unconventional policy
Forward guidance and asset purchases had significant effects on equities markets – researchers
Inflation target uncertainty magnifies price shocks’ impact- BoI paper
Researchers investigate effects of central banks failing to pefectly follow targets
Shale oil boom has not shifted global supply- ECB paper
Global oil supply appears to be “rather vertical” at all times, researchers find
‘Animal spirits’ are real, DNB paper says
Researchers analyse data on household spending and consumer confidence
Fed paper looks at negative rates’ impact on eurozone banks
Effects of policy rate cuts on equity change past the zero lower bound, researchers say
Bank of Finland paper studies impact of China’s credit channel
Monetary policy’s effects on credit have significant impacts on economic activity, researchers say
Negative ECB deposit rate had limited effects – Bundesbank paper
Well-capitalised banks in core countries responded most to negative rates, researchers find
ECB’s bond purchases restrict monetary policy – DNB paper
Higher demand for safe assets widens bond yields and cuts policy transmission, says researcher
Central banks should use direct lending in shocks – BIS paper
Lending to firms directly could reduce welfare loss during financial shocks, researchers say