Research
US company debt and euro public debt are global financial risks – IMF
China’s non-bank financial firms are also a major vulnerability, fund says
Bundesbank paper presents new model of banks’ risk-taking
Traditional models make error in assuming that banks choose fixed-size portfolios, authors argue
‘Green bonds’ are helping firms clean up their act – NBER paper
But bonds only have a significant impact if they are independently certified, researcher finds
Akerlof warns economics is biased against methods seen as ‘soft’
Nobel prize-winner says bias leads to “sins of omission” in economic research
Construction trends can predict yield curve inversions – St Louis Fed
Housebuilding expectations should be considered when forecasting economic activity, researchers say
Riksbank investigates adoption of T2S for securities trading
Central bank thinks securities settlement must move towards faster, round-the-clock operations
NY Fed researchers develop new natural rate of unemployment measure
Estimate is 50–60 basis points lower than other mainstream estimates
High-frequency trading can harm market liquidity – ECB paper
Researcher finds increased competition can lead to rise in speculative strategies
CBDC could raise bank funding costs – Philadelphia Fed
Choosing an appropriate interest rate could help alleviate problem, say researchers
Import-intensive sectors see higher exchange rate pass-through
Changes in Colombian peso exchange rate against dollar have small effect on exports
‘Uncertainty shocks’ can do long-term harm – BoE paper
Authors outline a general equilibrium model to show uncertainty can have long-run effects
Free trade agreement to boost growth in Africa – IMF research
Smaller economies are more likely to benefit from more open trade conditions in the continent
Limited access to finance increased business exits in Great Recession – St Louis Fed
Illiquidity may have played a greater role than insolvency in business exits, researchers find
Kenya’s rate controls caused ‘collapse’ in credit – IMF paper
Caps undermined central bank’s control over signalling policy stance, researchers find
BIS research documents high concentration of cross-border credit
Big banks dominate global credit, which matters for global spillovers, authors say
Regulations lower rates and cause imbalances – BoE paper
Research into repo market highlights some unintended consequences of post-crisis regulations
US corporates ‘substantially’ more leveraged than thought – Dallas Fed researchers
Using a broader measure than debt-to-GDP, levels are almost double, they say
Universal deposit insurance lowers consumer fears – Bundesbank paper
Authors study major change in Germany’s bank deposit provision
Fiscal policy needed to tackle next crisis – Riksbank research
Low interest rates limits monetary policy influence, but opens the door to sustainable fiscal stimulus
CBDC need not pose stability threat – paper
Markus Brunnermeier and Dirk Niepelt say some arguments about CBDC are “questionable”
Local shocks may outweigh global factors for EMEs – ECB paper
US monetary shocks less important than much recent literature argues, researchers say
BIS paper models dollar’s debt dominance
“Debt view” of dollar dominance has empirical support, authors say
BIS paper finds cross-border links between monetary and macro-pru policy
Authors discover “significant interactions” between policies
Open and closed economy central banks react differently to inflation – research
Some economies respond more strongly to certain variables, Fernando Leibovici says