Research
Cash usage keeps falling in Netherlands
In 2018, 37% of purchases were paid for in cash, down from 41% in 2017
BoE paper models stress in non-bank sector
Authors highlight importance of “tipping points”, which can lead to amplification of stress
Reforms have cut Latin American unemployment – IMF paper
But informal employment and inequality remain high, researcher says
BIS paper proposes network model of global contagion
Authors create a network of CDS linkages to assess contagion risk in the financial system
BoI paper presents new method for eurozone inflation forecasts
Model works well to predict inflation using data from bloc’s four largest economies, authors say
IMF paper analyses Philippines inflation
Longer delay in tightening rates would have led to higher inflation, researchers find
Cleveland Fed paper looks for reasons for flatter Phillips curve
Monetary policy responses to “output deviations” may be key factor, researcher argues
NBER paper outlines ‘four-equation model’
Authors expand the textbook three-equation model to account for unconventional monetary policy; extra policy tool is necessary to overcome credit shocks
Regulators need ‘stick and carrot’ to deal with NPLs – BoI paper
Optimal policy combines capital transfers and NPL disposals to wipe out owners’ rents – researchers
BIS paper looks at low returns on safe assets
Changing risk perceptions explain growing wedge between safe and risky assets, authors say
ECB paper presents new approach to modelling LTV caps
Agent-based model’s results show “subprime” segment to eurozone housing markets – researchers
Local policy impact can be dispersed in currency unions – Bank of Spain research
Study analyses effect of large post-crisis fiscal stimulus implemented in Spain
Bank of Spain paper examines post-crisis US bond markets
Volatility is less persistent but more frequent than before global financial crisis, researchers find
Trade tensions set to harm long-term US growth – IMF paper
Output would decline even if China voluntarily limits its exports to the US
Loose financial conditions predict output gap – NY Fed paper
Policy-makers can make significant welfare gains by greater focus on financial conditions – researchers
BIS papers weigh up ongoing risks to global stability
Papers from 2018 AGM include contributions from Forbes, Tucker, Gourinchas and Rey
‘O-SII’ limits decreased risky lending – ECB paper
Lending to risky borrowers fell without lasting impact on growth rates, researchers say
‘Heterogeneous beliefs’ can improve models of inflation – BoE paper
Authors break down inflation expectations in search of additional forward-looking information
Sovereign debt restructuring does not hamper returns long-term – IMF paper
Investors who sell during crises fare much worse than those who buy and hold
Energy prices drive inflation interdependence – research
Core inflation is much less co-ordinated across advanced economies, Bank of Spain paper finds
Mobile financial services bring firms into formal economy - BdF paper
New technologies cuts size of ‘informal’ economy in developing world, researchers find
US bank competition weaker than thought – St Louis Fed paper
Measuring off-balance sheet actives shows some banks have 10% more pricing power, says researcher
Optimal capital may be higher than previously thought – Basel Committee
Study finds net long-term benefits to higher capital levels
Effects of CBDC on lending depend on level of competition – BoC researchers
CBDC could increase bank lending if banks have some market power, researchers say