Research
Stress tests vulnerable to ‘model risk’ – Bundesbank paper
Small changes in models can lead to big differences in results, researchers find
Europe’s ‘zombie lending’ harmed recovery – BoE paper
Forbearance appears to harm output, investment and total factor productivity, paper finds
ECB’s negative rates increased eurozone credit supply – IMF paper
Cuts above zero lower bound did not have same effects on banks, researchers find
BoE paper: corporate bond purchases boosted market liquidity
Study of post-Brexit QE finds purchases helped support bond market liquidity
Central bank outlook is key to rate decisions’ impact – Bundesbank paper
“Pure policy” and “information” shocks have very different effects on economy, researcher argues
EMEs have limited policy independence if open to capital flows, researchers find
Alternative policy tools can be deployed to overcome the dilemma, the authors say
Central bank digital currencies need bigger incentive to succeed, researchers find
IMF paper estimates the potential demand for central bank digital currencies
ECB paper analyses eurozone’s interest rate swap market
Trading is concentrated around a small number of core participants, researchers find
Eurozone lending constraints are effective but only after a time lag, researcher says
IMF paper looks at efficacy of tighter lending on curbing house prices and credit
BoE economists build news-based growth indicator
Newspaper articles can be boiled down to a useful early indicator of economic activity, they say
Micro variables are best warning signs for smaller Italian banks – BoI
Bank of Italy presents early-warning system for crises in less significant lenders
Timing of US intraday payments may be useful signal – New York Fed paper
Lenders made intrabank payments earlier once Fed expanded balance sheet, researchers say
Bundesbank paper analyses G10 currencies
Industrialised countries’ currencies differ in their influence on each other, researchers find
IMF paper sets out growth-at-risk framework
Tool for assessing macro-financial conditions likely to enhance surveillance, authors say
Regulators must not be too strict in a crisis – BIS paper
Cyclical capital requirements should account for downturns as well, author argues
Trump’s tariffs may have caused inflation – researchers
Estimates indicate tariffs may have already contributed 0.1 percentage points to CPI, authors find
Polarised labour market has left low-skilled workers vulnerable – research
Technology and globalisation have hit wages of less skilled urban workers, says David Autor
Danish mobile phone use cuts cost of P2P payments
Widespread adoption of technology fosters more efficient operations
NY Fed paper scrutinises post-crisis CDS market
Little research has been done on the market at a “granular level”, authors say
Most financial stability committees lack policy tools, researchers say
Many committees lack good internal processes and ability to implement policies, authors say
US bank interconnectedness is falling – San Fran Fed paper
New method focuses on idiosyncratic factors to identify possible links, researchers say
Phillips curve still applies to Sweden, Riksbank researcher says
Firm-level data indicates that traditional relationship still holds, paper argues
Buffers should not be rebuilt too quickly – Bank of Canada paper
Requirements should be lower during crisis recovery to avoid bank default, researcher argues
Sub-Saharan Africa could be fintech hub – IMF author
Wider adoption of mobile banking provides platform for further developments, says Amadou Sy