Research
Higher EU corporate bond spreads in 2018 unrelated to ECB policy – research
Global trade disputes played a bigger role than the end of the European asset purchase programme
Equity market uncertainty can reduce real GDP – researcher
Equity market volatility in Q4 2018 could reduce the policy rate path by 50bp, says researcher
Consensus over Fed inflation target shifted during Great Recession – San Fran Fed
Up until the 2008 crisis, most FOMC participants preferred a 1.5% target, researchers find
Hard IMF conditions deter borrowers from coming back – ECB paper
Researchers use data on most IMF programmes since 1992 to investigate “IMF stigma”
Google data can underpin eurozone GDP nowcasts – Banque de France paper
Researchers say method is particularly useful when official data is unavailable
‘Does the Fed know more about the economy?’ asks San Francisco Fed
Researcher compares Fed and private sector growth forecasts
Informal sector changes inflation dynamics – BIS paper
Informality dampens impact of some shocks but also impairs policy transmission, authors find
Bahraini women gain prominence in financial sector
Number of local women employed increases by 2.2% in 2018, central bank data shows
US wage growth ‘possibly double’ what is reported – Dallas Fed
Researchers use dataset that includes those who move house to calculate wage growth
Kenya’s financial inclusion rate passes 80%
Mobile banking has helped inclusion rates increase by over 200% over the last 13 years, but the technology has also introduced new risks
Most US community banks could withstand housing slump – researcher
San Fran Fed researcher says less than 1% of banks would be “severely undercapitalised”
Eurozone macro-prudential policies have large cross-border effects – ECB paper
Impact especially strong when different countries have asymmetric financial cycles, researchers say
Lower unionisation ‘unlikely to account for’ low wage growth
In Australia, share of employees covered by wage agreements negotiated remains stable, RBA researchers find
Fed launches database on household wealth distribution
Database designed to help policy-makers understand the impact of their decisions on patterns of inequality
Ageing workforce depresses wage inflation – BIS paper
Demographic change could be behind weakness of inflation despite record-low unemployment
US bank holding companies have become less complex – NY Fed paper
Researcher examines organisational, business and geographical complexity in decade after 2007
IMF research supports creation of fiscal responsibility laws
Philippine example highlights flaws in “non-binding” ceiling on budget deficit, author says
IMF puts new macro-prudential database to work
Fund uses new data to test effectiveness of LTV ratios
Boston Fed research encourages tokenisation for ecommerce
Payment method could reduce fraud, paper says, given account information is removed from the process
Mortgage innovations fuelled pre-crisis housing boom – paper
Researchers look at 60 million US mortgages to examine non-traditional mortgage products
China’s bond market needs reform, economist says
IMF book looks in detail at China’s bond market characteristics, prospects and reforms
Local currency debt not enough to escape US dollar influence – BIS paper
Emerging markets borrowing in domestic currency are still affected by the US dollar exchange rate
BIS paper studies high-frequency data on central bank intervention
Sterilised foreign exchange interventions can help to slow credit growth, authors find
NGDP target can create ‘divine coincidence’ – Bullard and Singh
Nominal GDP targeting can “repair” distortions from credit market frictions, authors find