Research
Strong recovery in US treasury purchases is ‘unlikely’ – paper
Central banks’ demand for US government bonds has ‘plateaued’ as reserve managers diversify
Africa’s domestic debt shift raises costs and risks, BIS warns
Diversifying investor bases necessary to reduce reliance on central and commercial banks, study says
Study compares private credit and leveraged loan market structure
Some firms better able to substitute between funding types than others, authors find
Resolution reforms may cut credit supply – CEPR paper
Easier requirements on smaller US banks helps reveal impact of ‘living wills’
External shocks tighten credit conditions – ECB bulletin
New index finds funding becomes scarce after unexpected changes in economic activity
Yield curve data can improve estimates of r* – IMF paper
Results suggest r* has risen and help explain ‘soft landings’ after inflation surge
Fresh graduates’ job market perception worsened by 23% in 2025 – ECB
Research points to slowing growth in knowledge-intensive services to explain otherwise ‘cyclical’ effect
Anchoring expectations ‘critical’ in energy shock – BIS researchers
Most significant shock since the 90s Gulf crisis “may warrant hiking rates more quickly”
Digital euro would have ‘muted’ effect on banks’ funding – paper
Bundesbank finds that €3,000 holding limit would cause “contained” effects on long-term bank health
Central banks should intervene with a ‘market backstop’ – paper
New research suggests optimal policy response to market freezes
Strained public finances may trigger ‘great repression’ – paper
IMF study of a century of data on financial repression finds the tactic is tempting governments again
LLMs can analyse news articles to spot stability risks – ECB study
Authors use AI to find trigger events in dataset of over 1 million stories
Weather shocks impact the economy unevenly, study says
Central banks overlook the broader economic fallout of cold spells
‘Hybrid’ regimes more exposed to sanctions – BdF study
Measures more likely to succeed against authoritarian states with an element of democratisation
Icelandic policy has been sub-optimal for two decades – research
Central bank set rates too high post-GFC and should have eased quicker, paper suggests
Monetary policy missteps more likely amid AI boom – BIS study
Authors warn uncertainty over new technology leaves traditional benchmarks vulnerable
Eurozone non-labour income used for saving, not spending – paper
Erosion in financial wealth dragged on consumption, Bank of Italy study finds
Bank of Italy used balance sheet as monetary policy tool – study
Bank’s senior economist finds approach proved effective throughout the 20th century
EU defence spending boosts growth before inflation – CNB
Financial markets buy into defence equities well before government money has been spent, study finds
Frontier AI poses new cyber risks – BIS study
National and international co-operation needed to tackle increased threat
Argentina should borrow from international markets – Obstfeld
Economist calls for transition to floating exchange rate with inflation targeting
FX controls have minimal impact on stablecoin dollarisation – study
BIS working paper argues that growing use of crypto assets presents policy challenges for EDMEs
Shocks greater when inflation already high – BoE study
Bank publishes latest response to Bernanke review of UK monetary policy-making
Software may contain bugs for private credit – BIS paper
Bulletin says disruption from AI could cause outage for lenders heavily invested in sector