Research
AI models ‘know more than they say’ – BoE paper
Tapping into ‘hidden states’ of large language models can improve data processing, authors claim
Emerging market central banks should be hawkish – NBER paper
Stronger reactions to inflation surges help to build institutions’ reputations, researchers argue
Firms slow to adjust investment targets for inflation – BoJ study
Discount rates are sticky and do not rise with expected increases in price levels, research finds
Researchers revisit 20-year forecast for global monetary system
Eichengreen and Razo-Garcia predict further move towards polarised exchange rate regimes
Stablecoins to trigger rise in demand for Treasuries – study
Authors say sector’s growth could take demand from around $300bn today to $2trn by 2030
Swiss price controls do not depress inflation – SNB paper
CPI metric would ‘not have greatly differed’ had it excluded price-controlled goods, study finds
NBER paper maps out international financial network
Rey and Stavrakeva show equities markets play crucial transmission role
Trade fragmentation not always inflationary – BoE study
Tariffs influence prices based on how sudden the shock is and how demand adjusts, researchers say
Stablecoin rules should extend beyond issuers – FSI report
Some platforms offer yield-bearing products based on digital assets, latest brief points out
US long-term unemployment uptick worries researchers
Minneapolis Fed authors point to ‘large and consequential trend’ upwards
Fed researcher makes case for liquidity support for non-banks
Central clearing, liquidity regulations and balance sheet policies may be key, says author
Career concerns can lead to better FOMC voting – NBER paper
Study examines range of biases among Fed decision-makers
Machine-to-machine could be future of payments – study
Existing 402 web protocol, coupled with AI, could enable frictionless transactions, says author
US inflation regime persistently above target now – Fed economist
Price rises are broad-based and have significantly impacted expectations says researcher
BoE paper offers methods for policy-making under uncertainty
Forecast-based, news-based and rules-based methods can be used together, authors say
Bank of Italy develops cross-border payments solution
Researchers say their approach enables instant cross-currency international transfers
BIS article notes changing effects of dollar weakness on EMEs
Investment channel likely to become more important countervailing force, authors say
US inflation expectations at risk of de-anchoring – Boston Fed study
Authors say post-Covid spike has altered perceptions of future price stability
Diverse opportunities lead to more resilient labour markets – study
Minneapolis Fed authors say economic concentration makes it harder for areas to recover from shocks
Firms in Italy keep mafia closer when credit is tight – paper
Economic shocks make it harder for businesses to refuse cosa nostra’s offers, says central bank report
FSB urges tighter oversight of AI adoption in finance
Reliance on generative AI services can give rise to third-party risk concerns, body warns
Rising temperatures raise inflation expectations – ECB paper
Global warming also leads to greater pessimism about growth, research finds
Sovereign defaults fell in 2024, says Bank of Canada study
However, debt service payments still high as interest rates remain elevated
National statistics need reform to capture AI impact – study
Official data tends to lack the granularity to capture transformative effects of AI, authors say