Research
UK regulator says firms are under-reporting money mules
Financial companies cite challenge of establishing criminal intent
Unexpected rate hikes push down commodity prices – research
The most traded commodities are more vulnerable to monetary policy shocks, BoE paper shows
Philadelphia Fed documents troubling credit trends in US
Revolving credit and delinquencies on rise as minimum payments hit peak for the decade
Immigration reduces inflation in US – IMF paper
But immigrants put upward pressure on house prices, study finds
AI can solve more complex economic models – BIS paper
Neural networks help economists solve and estimate non-linear heterogeneous agent models
Inflation uncertainty spills over into US – Fed study
Lack of clarity over input costs and interest rates leads to lower levels of investment, study finds
Disability poses hidden costs in US – Fed research
Authors also explore how gender gap and living alone affect financial wellbeing
Tighter credit and monetary policy hurts the young – ECB study
Borrowing limits push up rents but do not affect house prices, research shows
Rising corporate distress could trigger instability – IMF paper
Study says emerging markets particularly exposed as firms struggle with higher interest rates
ECB presidents’ displays of emotion affect markets – study
Research says leaders’ facial expressions and tones of voice amplify effects of their policy statements
NBER paper explores sources of ‘geoeconomic power’
Authors write of “urgent need” to understand “new era of geoeconomic rivalry”
BoE study suggests policy can affect inflation expectations
However, many households still have theoretically “wrong” idea about effects of tightening
Trade wars could cost world $6.5tn by 2030 – Swift study
Fragmented financial landscape “benefits no one”, report shows
Fed’s anecdotal survey correlates with economic data – research
Study says Beige Book’s “soft” data is “actually quite firm”
Central banks must be responsive to commodity price swings – BIS
Risk of transitioning to “high-inflation regime” may require more active policy, bulletin says
Bigger cities do not mean much greater growth – study
Benefits of agglomeration are “surprisingly little”, NBER paper argues
Higher tariffs would hurt US allies as well as its foes – research
However, research says country would be largely shielded from impact of geopolitical fragmentation
Confidence in stability matters for financial inclusion – IMF paper
Study of central Asia finds good governance increases effectiveness of many policies
Refinancing at higher rates might not cut consumption – BoE paper
Homeowners’ ability to modify loan terms could weaken monetary policy transmission, study finds
Distributions allow better state-level forecasts – RBI paper
Authors find new method incorporating inflation and expectations can cut forecast errors
Unfunded fiscal spending leads to lower real rates – research
Deglobalisation could limit ability of monetary policy to control inflation, says author
Forbearance does not always lead to ‘zombification’ – BoE paper
Well-designed policies can support firms through temporary periods of stress, researchers find
Central banks need to foster trust – ECB report
Instilling public confidence helps in achieving policy objectives and maintaining independence
Fintechs’ share in Dutch NBFI lending doubled in two years – DNB study
However, €2.3 billion dispersed by firms still represents only 0.7% of all loans