Research
US inflation expectations tick up across all time horizons
NY Fed survey finds more respondents expect prices to rise over one- three- and five-year timeframes
Italian lenders do not under-report default risks – central bank
Commercial lenders’ internal rating-based systems “less conservative” than central bank’s
Fed’s latest Beige Book reports modest growth across US
Boston was only branch to report decreased activity since October
Inheritance tax avoidance has fiscal impact – Bank of Spain study
Paper says loopholes led to effective reduction in tax rate of 1.3 percentage points in Catalonia
CBDCs would reduce foreign exchange risk – LSE study
Adoption of digital currencies could mean lenders needing to hold less regulatory capital
BIS study examines ways to improve catastrophe insurance
Financial Stability Institute says “parametric” policies can help businesses weather the storm
Eurozone needs ‘exceptional mechanism’ to resolve banks – BdF
Bloc is ready to resolve most challenges but still needs liquidity mechanism for larger lenders
South European states benefited most from NGEU – ECB
Recovery and resilience facility’s structural reforms expected to pay off in the long run
‘Financial conditions targeting’ could help stabilise output – paper
“Risk-centric” New Keynesian model highlights benefit of acting on financial conditions
Market-based systemic risk metrics ‘crucial’ for supervisors
Paper finds measures are effective at predicting crises in the US over a long period
Keep liquidity provision loose during shocks – ECB study
Central banks can lessen harm to economy by reducing liquidity premium, say authors
NBER paper offers ‘unified theory’ of liquidity traps
Researchers ask whether major economies are doomed to return to zero lower bound
US rate hikes ‘lock in’ homeowners – Fed study
Tighter monetary policy raises house prices and reduces churn, research finds
San Francisco Fed paper details declining immigration into US
Statistics show decline after White House’s June proclamation barring entry across southern border
As a population ages, impact of deflation worsens – BoJ study
Research says falling prices inflict greatest harm on young people
Rate hikes affect manufacturing economies more – Fed study
Authors find similar effects across eurozone and in US at county level
Decentralised crypto exchanges dominated by big players – paper
Research argues that simply removing intermediaries is not enough to democratise finance
US consumers are increasingly denied credit – NY Fed survey
Rejections for auto loans and remortgages have reached record levels
Media narratives drive capital flows into China – NBER paper
Sentiment in news articles impacts investment decisions, regardless of country’s economic fundamentals
US consumers predict growing pressure from inflation and debt
More respondents to NY Fed survey expect to miss payments and to face steeper price rises
Doing nothing is ‘least costly’ response to US tariffs – BoF blog
Costs will be borne by American firms and households, Bank of Finland analysis shows
Covid stimulus did not trigger US inflation surge – NBER study
Working paper says QE and fiscal stimulus had minimal impact on price rises
Paper offers solution to EME monetary transmission puzzles
Price and exchange rate conundrums are interconnected, authors find
Banxico working paper tackles ‘loan puzzle’
Study finds that banks increase credit to low-delinquency sectors following policy tightening