War in Taiwan would cause severe disruption – Fed study

Conflict would be most economically impactful since World War II, says author

Map of Taiwan

A Chinese invasion or blockade of Taiwan would trigger trade disruption, inflation and higher nominal debt and taxation levels, according to research by the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis.

The research, published on February 26, says a blockade or invasion would be likely to create a flight to safety in the asset markets and “greatly” exacerbate fiscal pressures.

The author, Christopher Neely, says hostilities over Taiwan would have far greater repercussions for the global economy than the war

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