US house price-to-rent ratio likely to fall – Dallas Fed study

Expected decline could also signal future course of inflation, research argues

Aerial view of a US suburb

The US house price-to-rent ratio and real home prices are both likely to decline, according to research from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

The ratio of US house prices to rents has risen by 20% since the start of the pandemic, the author, J Scott Davis, finds. This, he says, is close to the previous high reached in 2006.

“The future course of inflation may well be influenced by how this now-lofty ratio reverts to a more usual level,” he writes.

The high point in 2006 was followed by a global

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