Research
Dallas Fed study adds to official scepticism of US tariffs
Research says potential for domestic gains will depend on other countries not responding
ECB intervention stabilised debt market during Covid – research
Study by bank’s economists says firms found it harder to issue commercial paper later on
NY Fed and BIS explore monetary policy in a tokenised world
Project Pine’s smart contracts are designed so central banks can adapt them to their currencies and frameworks
Tariffs already raising US inflation – Fed study
Researchers say trade policies were starting to affect consumer prices in March
Rate hikes have created debt-servicing difficulties – ECB study
Research also points to overall robustness in eurozone’s household lending sector
AI poses financial stability risks, says RBNZ report
Market concentration among potential sources of instability, research finds
Falling oil prices bode ill for Russia – Bank of Finland blog
Higher deficits may cause authorities to engage in monetary financing, says Heli Simola
FOMC vote rotation ‘distorts’ rates – NBER paper
Regional Fed presidents make decisions based on local conditions, research finds
Eurozone exports to US unlikely to rise in trade war – ECB study
US tariffs rerouted Chinese goods to eurozone, but exporters there failed to boost US presence
Almost half of eurozone ready to stop buying US goods – ECB study
Tariffs have triggered significant animosity among consumers, research finds
Natural interest rate driven by productivity growth – research
Population increase also plays important role in determining metric, RBNZ paper finds
Stress tests stronger in EU than in US – BdF research
Lenders remain well capitalised in both regions but European banks are more resilient, study finds
Post-Covid inflation in US mainly driven by demand – study
Author says findings help account for Fed’s difficulty in achieving 2% target
Eurozone fiscal policies grew real GDP, dampened inflation – ECB
However, Covid-era policies led to higher deficits and debt in years following pandemic, research finds
‘Liberation day’ likely to cause US recession – NBER study
Paper sets out conditions for tariff-driven downturn and says US is likely to meet them
Bank lending in Ukraine continues to grow, despite conflict
NBU survey reports demand from businesses and households is up, though loan quality may be slipping
Inflation uncertainty reaching historic high in US – research
Richmond Fed economist says inflation expectations and uncertainty are rising dramatically
Researchers build ‘most comprehensive’ global macro database
Long-term data reveals financial crises can harm growth for half a century
Birth determines people’s retirement savings in US – study
US-born seniors have almost three times as much saved as non-citizens, Minneapolis Fed research finds
Disparities in US inflation have policy implications – study
State-level differences in price rises have increased since 2010s, says San Francisco Fed study
SMEs likely to pass on tariff costs to consumers – study
Boston Fed research finds causal link between levies and price rises for consumers
Global liquidity flows less sensitive to risk – NBER paper
Capital flows are more stable despite shift into bonds since global financial crisis
Average inflation targeting raised post-Covid prices in US – study
Dallas Fed research argues Fait framework contributed to surging prices
Policy should respond to long-run expectations – Fed study
Such a framework would enhance price stability, paper argues