Research
ECB paper analyses risk-sharing in emerging markets
Working paper finds evidence of pro-cyclicality of capital gains on domestic stock markets; argues countries can hedge against risk by encouraging foreign investment
IMF paper assesses macro-prudential models in Latin America
Working paper evaluates two major Latin American policy models, one of institutional separation and one of integration; suggests areas for improvement in both models
Central Bank of Ireland paper weighs crisis impact on SME financing
Research technical paper assesses effect of economic, financial and debt crises in Europe on small and medium-sized enterprises’ access to credit; discusses impact of private debt overhang
ECB paper models policy interaction
Working paper examines the benefits of co-ordinating monetary and macro-prudential policies; finds separation of regimes can damage macroeconomic stability
SNB paper links low interest rates and housing bubbles
Swiss National Bank working paper finds strong relationship between low short-term rates and housing bubbles; argues house prices can be controlled by following ‘Taylor rule’
Bank of Finland paper evaluates confidence indicators in forecasts
Discussion paper analyses the link between measures of confidence and growth forecasting in the Russian economy; finds not all measures improve accuracy of forecasts
ECB paper studies sovereign debt and growth links
Working paper studies relationship between different levels of sovereign debt and growth; finds increasing debt only boosts short-run growth up to a certain threshold
IMF paper studies effects of macro-prudential policy
Working paper studies effectiveness of macro-prudential policy in an environment of financial innovation; identifies various factors determining policy outcomes
SNB paper evaluates central bank communication strategies
Swiss National Bank working paper examines two communication strategies designed to reduce market overreaction to announcements
NBS paper measures impact of productivity differentials
National Bank of Serbia working paper studies effect of differing productivity growth between sectors and countries; finds impact on inflation and exchange rates
IMF paper studies reduced financial interconnectedness
Working paper examines impact of deleveraging by financial institutions through declines in collateral use; identifies issue that may cause unintended consequences
BoE paper quantifies output gap estimation errors
Bank of England discussion paper models accuracy of output gap estimations based on OECD data; argues that absolute size of revisions to estimates does not improve over time
IMF paper models sovereign and bank feedback loops
Working paper develops model of interdependence of bank and fiscal solvency; finds relationship can lead to a ‘self-fulfilling crisis’
Central Bank of Colombia paper analyses sovereign default risk
Working paper assesses main factors determining risk of Colombian government defaulting on its debt; finds different factors are important at different debt maturities
IMF paper analyses US capital flows and debt
Fund working paper develops model of international capital flows and resulting impact on debt dynamics; finds equity and FDI returns allowed US to maintain high debt levels
IMF paper assesses drivers of banking equity returns
Working paper studies factors behind movements in bank equity prices; finds that despite general 'dismal' performance, equities of better capitalised and less leveraged banks perform best
IMF paper assesses eurobond proposals
Working paper considers five proposed methods of common debt issuance in Europe; argues there must be a “fundamental discussion” to avoid unintended consequences
Fed paper analyses core inflation measurement
Working paper attempts to produce optimal gauge of core inflation by excluding items with high variance; finds new index outperforms current measures ex-post, but is no better ex-ante
IMF paper examines Japan’s emergence from lost decade
Working paper considers reasons behind a surge in Japanese exports in 2001; finds domestic productivity growth most important factor
Fed paper evaluates impact of QE
Working paper examines data from first round of Federal Reserve’s asset purchase programme; finds both immediate and longer-run effect of purchases on yields
RBI paper examines monetary policy transmission
Working paper studies channels of monetary policy in India; finds main impact made via interest rates but also identifies credit and asset-price effects
IMF paper studies debt sustainability in low-income countries
Working paper considers effect of financial crisis on debt sustainability in low-income countries; finds short-term impact but a return to sustainable levels in the longer run
Peru central bank paper models interbank lending
Working paper develops New Keynesian model including an interbank lending market to analyse dual effect of reserve requirements and interest rates
RBI paper suggests alternative to Basel capital buffer
Working paper considers applicability of using debt-to-GDP ratio as guide to capital buffer; argues India requires a different method to assess capital requirements