Research
IMF loans impact sovereign bonds, says Bank of Spain paper
Spanish study finds countries that receive IMF funding issue less sovereign debt, and with shorter maturities; effect is stronger under particular conditions
ECB paper analyses euro stability measures
ECB research assesses eurozone stability measures; says a European-wide framework for recapitalising large and systemic banks is still needed
BIS paper examines link between low growth and recessions
Bank for International Settlements research studies relationship between low growth and recession in the US; finds some growth patterns can forecast a sharp decline in GDP
Fed paper examines Chinese response to rate shocks
Federal Reserve study explores the response of the People’s Bank of China to foreign interest rate shocks; says liberalisation of foreign currency policies could reduce central bank’s costs
ECB paper finds US foreign bondholdings rooted in past
ECB research examines the link between past and present levels of foreign bonds held by US investors; finds similar investment patterns for both
IMF working paper critical of short-term austerity measures
IMF study suggests debt burdens should be addressed longer-term when economies are in expansionary mode; short-term austerity may do more harm than good
IMF paper dissects shadow banking bailouts
IMF study examines how bailouts were used in the shadow banking system during the crisis; suggests the risk of future bailouts remains
Netherlands Bank paper trials ban on commission
Study examines the effect of banning commission payments for financial advice; finds customers’ behaviour changes depending on how aware they are of advisers’ incentives
IMF paper warns fiscal policy is not sufficient to counter capital surges
Working paper finds countercyclical fiscal policy would not have been able to fully counter large capital inflows into many countries in emerging Europe before the financial crisis
Bank of Spain paper develops model of market volatility
Researchers produce measure of volatility able to cope with ‘vast’ panels of data; find model performs better than others that use shorter time horizons
IMF paper analyses how commodity prices impact inflation
Working paper investigates how international commodity prices affect domestic inflation; finds governance and autonomy are central bank’s biggest tools to combat shocks
French research examines impact of credit rating changes
Banque de France study examines impact of a change in a country's credit rating on investment markets; downgrades have significantly larger effect on spreads
Bundesbank paper investigates how relationships impact interbank lending
Bundesbank study reveals importance of good relationships to the liquidity of interbank markets; private information determines banks' willingness to lend and the price of their loans
IMF paper analyses China’s trade impact on Europe
Working paper investigates links between trading competitiveness in China and the EMU; finds different results for euro periphery and core countries
Fed paper dissects link between asset purchases and bond yields
San Francisco Fed working paper explores the relationship between the Fed’s asset purchases and international bond yields; says portfolio balance was a key link between the two
Italian paper studies impact of euro break-up fears
Bank of Italy working paper investigates interest rate movements away from macroeconomic fundamentals; suggests euro break-up fears may be an influence
RBA paper addresses systemic risk in payments system
Research paper from Reserve Bank of Australia analyses systemic risk in RTGS payment system; evaluates Australia’s liquidity-saving algorithms
Public policy signals can be beneficial, says BIS paper
Bank for International Settlements study models effect of policy signals on prices and market outcomes; takes into account market response
Fed paper evaluates asset purchase programmes
A Federal Reserve working paper says the central bank’s asset purchase programmes have lowered Treasury yields; uses market expectations to help judge impact
BIS paper analyses demographic influence on money supply
Bank for International Settlements research examines impact of baby boomers on inflation; predicts trouble ahead for central banks
Fed paper estimates impact of more stringent bank supervision
Discussion paper studies changes in the stringency of the US bank ratings system ‘Camels’; finds although variation is small, closer supervision leads to a significant decline in lending
IMF paper studies emerging market bond spreads
Working paper tests different explanatory variables for emerging market bond spreads over time; finds importance may change based on business cycle and external factors
Bank of Finland paper examines reasons for business cycle co-movement
Discussion paper suggests thinking of growth performance of economies as ‘coupled’ or ‘de-coupled’ is overly simplistic; identifies a number of factors contributing to interdependence
IMF paper tests portfolio rebalancing impact on exchange rates
Working paper studies effect of changes to equities portfolios in driving adjustments in exchange rates; finds higher stock market returns cause depreciation of currency