Research
IMF paper examines crisis indicators
Working paper assesses the effectiveness of various indicators in predicting financial crises; finds that leverage is ineffective and instead use of poor quality collateral is “critical link”
Bank of Canada paper models repo market collapse
Working paper develops model of repo markets to explain causes of collapse; finds that central bank intervention can help prevent problems
IMF paper studies fiscal impact of ageing population
Working paper analyses the effect of ageing populations on 'fiscal space' in G-7 countries; finds a greater impact on countries with larger governments
RBI paper develops systemic liquidity index
Working paper designs a 'systemic liquidity index' of financial markets in India; says index would be useful in monitoring financial system trends
IMF highlights problems with overreaction to financial crises
Working paper studies data on banking crises; finds that a strong macroeconomic response to a banking crisis may reduce incentive for banks to restructure
BoE paper studies impact of Lehman’s collapse on payments
Bank of England working paper studies the effect of the Lehman Brothers collapse on wholesale payment patterns; finds slower payments and increase in risk following the default
RBI paper analyses exchange rate volatility transmission
Working paper assesses spillover of exchange rate volatility from international currencies to Indian rupee; finds volatility is dependent on foreign exchange rates and domestic policies
Czech National Bank paper studies changing inflation dynamics
Working paper examines causes of changing inflation dynamics in central Europe; finds inflation expectations play a 'substantial role' in price stability
Bank of Finland paper assesses impact of eurozone crisis response
Discussion paper considers the effect of initiatives in response to the eurozone crisis on countries’ sovereign debt; finds some policy decisions had 'significant' short-term effect on bond markets
IMF paper assesses impact of financial sector size
Working paper examines the effect on growth of varying sizes of financial sectors; finds that above a certain threshold, financial sectors have a negative impact on growth
ECB paper models endogenous credit risk
Working paper discusses models of credit risk; authors argue that “feedback effects” have major implications for regulatory reform
IMF paper builds dynamic model of systemic risk
Working paper develops dynamic model of risk based on combination of underlying risk factors; finds this provides better warning signals than models with non-dynamic thresholds
IMF paper examines changing bond demand
Working paper considers changes in investor demand for government bonds after the financial crisis; finds lower yields shift demand from foreign to domestic investors
Bank of Canada paper compares price-level and inflation targets
Working paper considers effect of global commodity price shocks on choice of monetary policy regime; finds important impact of energy supply and demand
IMF paper models wholesale funding impact on credit supply
Working paper looks at effect of bank wholesale funding during financial crisis; finds use of wholesale funds negatively impacted credit supply during the crisis
BIS paper examines impact of financial cycle
Working paper studies the financial cycle and its relationship to the business cycle; emphasises importance of considering the medium term in designing policies
IMF paper assesses effect of transparency on credit ratings
Working paper studies relationship between fiscal transparency and sovereign credit ratings; finds that greater clarity improves a country’s rating
IMF paper develops model of systemic risk
Working paper studies asymmetric financial system response to shocks in individual institutions; finds negative bias towards shocks grows significantly with firm size
Central Bank of Chile paper examines transmission of shocks
Working paper studies reaction of investors and fund managers to shocks; finds behaviour amplifies crises and transmits shocks
IMF paper compares Islamic and conventional finance
Working paper examines returns on Islamic and conventional finance; finds differences in returns are not statistically significant
Central Bank of Colombia paper models transparency incentives
Working paper evaluates central bank incentives to misrepresent private information; finds central banks cannot credibly commit to truth-telling
IMF paper develops model of world economy
Paper builds structural macroeconomic model of world economy; says such models are “prerequisite” to IMF surveillance
BIS researcher examines countercyclical policy in emerging markets
BIS Quarterly Review special feature assesses the use of countercyclical policies in emerging markets; finds broad implementation of stabilising monetary and fiscal policies
ECB paper analyses impact of oil shocks on exchange rates
Working paper assesses impact of oil shocks on exchange rates between oil importers and exporters; finds no systematic appreciation pressure on oil exporters following a shock