Research
Impending drop in economic growth, warns South African research
South African Reserve Bank working paper uses new model to analyse financial conditions; finds conditions have declined and threaten GDP growth
ECB paper scrutinises sustainability of OECD public finances
European Central Bank working paper investigates public finances in sample of OECD countries; analyses causality between revenues and expenditures
BIS research analyses unconventional policies
Bank for International Settlements study examines unconventional policies employed during recession periods; compares the effects with other monetary tools
IMF paper assesses Basel III liquidity buffer measure
Working paper proposes an extra measure of systemic risk to complement Basel III; suggests incentives for financial institutions to internalise risk
RBA paper explains shift in ATM usage
Research paper from Reserve Bank of Australia analyses impact of 2009 ATM reforms; finds increased transparency has driven consumers away from ‘foreign’ machines
Bank of Canada paper studies risk and debt maturity
Working paper finds firms facing higher volatility tend to issue debt with a longer maturity; increase in maturity period accelerates during a recession
Dallas Fed research questions Chinese growth data
Economic letter uses proxy for industrial production to estimate Chinese growth; suggests official figures may understate the extent of the slowdown
Central Bank of Chile paper tests inflation forecast models
Working paper compares inflation forecast accuracy of new autoregressive model and “traditional” univariate models; finds improvement in short run but mixed results over longer horizon
IMF paper studies impact of US interest rates on sub-Saharan Africa
Working paper assesses degree to which exchange rates in sub-Saharan Africa respond to changes in US interest rates; finds movements depend on openness of capital account
ECB paper models economic impact of 'disaster risk'
Working paper finds expectations of severe recessions impact equity prices; effects feed through to the economy
Macedonia seeks to influence expectations
National Bank of the Republic of Macedonia unveils new research programme; hopes to improve communication to better manage expectations
South African paper assesses micro data and policy responses
Sarb working paper explores pricing conduct at a micro-data-set level and how this affects monetary policy; finds results diverge from Bayesian estimation techniques
BoE paper studies public banking interventions
A Bank of England study finds that when it comes to public intervention in banking, size matters; indicates that interventions made during the current crisis were successful
ECB paper finds new commodity transmission link for inflation
European Central Bank working paper explores relationship between demand shocks and inflation; reveals commodity prices indirectly magnify the effects
Philadelphia Fed paper examines private monetary system
A Philadelphia Fed study explores the public and private provision of money; finds that a central bank does contribute to monetary stability
Netherlands Bank paper analyses optimal size of ESM
Paper studies motivations for contributing to the European Stability Mechanism; finds the fund may need to increase in size
Fed paper investigates shackling credit-fuelled booms
Researchers at San Francisco Fed model asset-driven credit growth; find restrictions on household borrowing the most effective tool to reduce excess volatility
BoJ unveils international investment position in 2011
Japanese central bank research paper shows a rise in country’s net assets; both external financial assets and external liabilities increase
Boston Fed paper investigates uncertainty in interbank markets
Research examines role of uncertainty in causing the collapse of interbank lending markets; finds government intervention to provide information may help to restart lending
IMF paper studies monetary impact of household production
Working paper designs model that adds a household sector to the economy, which competes with firms in the service sector; finds this amplifies the transmission of monetary shocks
Central Bank of Chile paper tests evidence of asset price booms
Researcher finds evidence that capital flows drive asset price booms; identifies factors that mitigate this effect but says capital controls are not effective
IMF paper evaluates reserve adequacy in emerging markets
Working paper studies the determinants of reserve holdings in emerging markets and small islands; proposes measure of reserve adequacy
Bank of Israel paper says Europe is sub-optimal currency area
Research examines political problems with economic and monetary union in Europe; says Europe is a “dubious candidate” for an optimal currency area
ECB paper investigates policy effect on bank risk-taking
Working paper finds both positive and negative impact of monetary policy on bank risk-taking; suggests this makes it impossible for regulators to design optimal capital requirements