RBA’s ability to forecast put on trial


The Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) forecasts have "substantial explanatory power" for inflation, but not for economic growth, a research discussion paper published by the RBA on November 12 found.

The authors, Peter Tulip and Stephanie Wallace, use estimates of past forecast accuracy to construct confidence intervals for forecasts of CPI inflation, underlying inflation, real GDP growth and the unemployment rate.

The RBA forecasts for one year ahead accurately foreshadow both the level and

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