Research
IMF paper evaluates reserve adequacy in emerging markets
Working paper studies the determinants of reserve holdings in emerging markets and small islands; proposes measure of reserve adequacy
Bank of Israel paper says Europe is sub-optimal currency area
Research examines political problems with economic and monetary union in Europe; says Europe is a “dubious candidate” for an optimal currency area
ECB paper investigates policy effect on bank risk-taking
Working paper finds both positive and negative impact of monetary policy on bank risk-taking; suggests this makes it impossible for regulators to design optimal capital requirements
National Bank of Hungary paper highlights cash supply efficiency methods
Occasional paper from Hungarian central bank recommends ways of improving cash supply system; looks to exploit public and private business networks
CNB paper shows power of inflation targeting
Czech National Bank working paper shows inflation targeting can lead central banks to offset government spending shocks; can also have disciplinary effect on fiscal policy
IMF working paper warns of dangers in sovereign debt restructuring
Researchers find debt restructurings have adverse impact on economic growth; say debt sustainability is a crucial consideration
Cleveland Fed researchers suggest moderate growth may persist
‘Economic Trends’ research highlights possibility of a slowdown in US trend rate of growth; economy shows modest version of previous recoveries
Central Bank of Chile paper identifies causes of sudden capital flows
Working paper assesses factors leading to sudden surges of capital in and out of economies; finds the majority of cases are driven primarily by changes in debt flows
IMF paper finds evidence in favour of ‘Chicago Plan’
Researchers analyse benefits of requiring 100% reserve backing of bank deposits and lending financed by retained earnings; argue evidence supports four major advantages of plan
Bangladesh Bank seminar argues inflation differential is a monetary phenomenon
Researchers present evidence of reasons behind inflation differential between Bangladesh and India; say gap was greater when money supply in Bangladesh was growing faster
ECB paper warns of capital control externalities
Working paper examines spillover from tax on capital inflows into Brazil; identifies significant direct impact amplified by signalling effects
IMF paper assesses impact of monetary policy on inequality
Researchers study channels through which monetary policy affects income inequality in the US; find interest rate hikes cause increase in inequality
Central Bank of Brazil paper develops systemic risk indicators
Working paper suggests quantitative measures of systemic risk in Brazil that could be used by prudential regulators to determine when to intervene
New Zealand paper finds costs and benefits of stable funding requirement
Discussion paper examines effects of minimum stable funding ratios under Basel III; suggests ratio reduces credit expansion but amplifies pro-cyclical effects of wholesale funding spreads
Banque de France paper finds limited inflation impact of macro-prudential policy
Working paper searches for possible conflict of interest between monetary and macro-prudential policy; says risk is small but policies should nevertheless be co-ordinated
RBI paper measures threshold of sustainable current account deficit in India
Working paper warns of risks posed by large current account deficits; finds sustainable level of deficit has risen since balance of payments crisis in the 1990s
Banque de France paper highlights risks of financial markets opacity
Researchers find imperfect information on financial intermediaries’ exposures encourages risk-taking; suggest low interest rates and ‘gambling for resurrection’ raise systemic risk
National Bank of Belgium paper studies effect of shocks on US trade balance
Working paper analyses link between shocks to the marginal efficiency of investment and the US trade balance; argues this constitutes a significant element in forecasting US trade fluctuations
Central Bank of Colombia paper finds delayed monetary policy responses
Working paper develops new models of output gap and neutral interest rate; argues interest rate changes by central bank lag behind movements in output
IMF paper studies effect of global environment on domestic bond yields
Working paper analyses link between global economic conditions and emerging market domestic bond yields; finds financial market turmoil raises sensitivity to government spending increases
IMF paper warns against delays in Japanese fiscal consolidation
Working paper studies impact of budget deficit in Japan on intergenerational inequality; finds delaying budget cuts would adversely affect younger generations
Central Bank of Chile paper supports unit root-based inflation forecasts
Working paper argues unit root-based models can create effective inflation forecasts; tests findings based on data from US, Canada and Sweden
Cleveland Fed researchers find fault with BoE’s Funding for Lending
‘Economic Trends’ research from the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland identifies possible flaws in the Bank of England’s Funding for Lending Scheme; warns of risk to independence
BIS paper assesses impact of public recapitalisations on bank risk
Research analyses changes in risk levels in banks that required public funding during the financial crisis; finds no consistent evidence that rescued banks reduced their risk by more than other banks