Research
BoE paper models risk of financial shock amplification
Working paper develops model of financial system linkages to illustrate shock transmission; finds spread of defaults is amplified by fire sales and curtailed lending
IMF paper finds changing resilience of emerging markets to financial shocks
Working paper assesses net change in ability of emerging markets to absorb financial shocks; says improved economic fundamentals are offset by vulnerabilities due to inflexible exchange rates
IMF paper finds stronger and more complex fiscal rules following crises
Working paper compiles dataset of national and supra-national fiscal rules; suggests rules were strengthened after crises in the 1990s and after the financial crisis
Central Bank of Colombia paper develops early warning model of credit booms
Working paper tests model of credit booms that includes macroeconomic indicators in addition to credit growth; finds the model performs well across a number of Latin American countries
Bank of Canada paper warns of shock transmission multipliers
Working paper finds financial integration between countries leads to multiplier effects in the transmission of shocks; suggests greater investment causes greater correlation of output
BoE paper studies information in sticky and flexible prices
Working paper studies the usefulness of sticky and flexible prices in showing firms’ estimates of the output gap and inflation expectations
Fed paper finds ‘surprising’ impact of monetary policy on long-term real rates
Working paper suggests reasons for the unexpected effect of short-term monetary policy on long-term real rates; argues this is driven by demand from ‘yield-oriented’ investors
IMF paper suggests policies to sustain fast growth in India
Working paper applies lessons from fast growth in 2000s to current Indian growth slowdown; warns that progress will continue to slow if policy-makers do not act quickly
Central Bank of Chile paper finds benefits to financial exclusion
Working paper studies welfare in countries with currency pegs when access to external financial markets is restricted; finds closing capital account can increase household welfare
BIS paper argues financial systems can grow too large
Working paper examines impact of size of financial systems on productivity growth; finds size of financial sector initially boosts productivity but beyond certain threshold has negative effect
Bank of Finland paper analyses Chinese monetary policy
Discussion paper assesses the use of non-market monetary policy in China; finds policy tools are effective at controlling inflation but this depends on source of economic shocks
IMF paper examines impact of financial crisis on US state finances
Working paper studies effect of balanced budget rules at US state level; finds pro-cyclicality but suggests this could be mitigated without changing the rules
Bundesbank paper studies changes in European monetary transmission
Discussion paper considers effect of financial crisis on transmission of European Central Bank monetary policy; finds decrease in sensitivity of Euribor to changes in central bank rates
ECB paper analyses risk-sharing in emerging markets
Working paper finds evidence of pro-cyclicality of capital gains on domestic stock markets; argues countries can hedge against risk by encouraging foreign investment
IMF paper assesses macro-prudential models in Latin America
Working paper evaluates two major Latin American policy models, one of institutional separation and one of integration; suggests areas for improvement in both models
Central Bank of Ireland paper weighs crisis impact on SME financing
Research technical paper assesses effect of economic, financial and debt crises in Europe on small and medium-sized enterprises’ access to credit; discusses impact of private debt overhang
ECB paper models policy interaction
Working paper examines the benefits of co-ordinating monetary and macro-prudential policies; finds separation of regimes can damage macroeconomic stability
SNB paper links low interest rates and housing bubbles
Swiss National Bank working paper finds strong relationship between low short-term rates and housing bubbles; argues house prices can be controlled by following ‘Taylor rule’
Bank of Finland paper evaluates confidence indicators in forecasts
Discussion paper analyses the link between measures of confidence and growth forecasting in the Russian economy; finds not all measures improve accuracy of forecasts
ECB paper studies sovereign debt and growth links
Working paper studies relationship between different levels of sovereign debt and growth; finds increasing debt only boosts short-run growth up to a certain threshold
IMF paper studies effects of macro-prudential policy
Working paper studies effectiveness of macro-prudential policy in an environment of financial innovation; identifies various factors determining policy outcomes
SNB paper evaluates central bank communication strategies
Swiss National Bank working paper examines two communication strategies designed to reduce market overreaction to announcements
NBS paper measures impact of productivity differentials
National Bank of Serbia working paper studies effect of differing productivity growth between sectors and countries; finds impact on inflation and exchange rates
IMF paper studies reduced financial interconnectedness
Working paper examines impact of deleveraging by financial institutions through declines in collateral use; identifies issue that may cause unintended consequences