Early-warning indicators useful in emerging markets, says Finland paper


A discussion paper published today (October 3) by the Bank of Finland says early-warning indicator models of asset price boom-and-bust cycles yield "promising" results for emerging market economies.

The author, Alexey Ponomarenko, says models initially developed for advanced economies also have predictive power in emerging markets, which can be enhanced without extensive modifications.

The paper estimates credit growth and investment (in either growth rates or ratio-to-GDP) are reliable

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