Economics
Researcher models business cycle using ‘animal spirits’
San Francisco Fed paper incorporates ‘equity sentiment shock’ into model
Labour reallocation explains productivity puzzle – BoE paper
Methodological innovation helps solve data-quality issues, author says
Indian researchers use Google searches to overcome lack of data
RBI paper examined Google Trends to study growth in the Indian housing market
G20 warns against protectionism
Finance ministers and central bankers commit to support economy with fiscal and monetary tools
Forecasting yield curve inversion is hard – Cleveland Fed research
Inversions may be a “harbinger of recession” but seeing them coming is difficult, says economist
Podcast: David Vines on how to reform the DSGE model
Oxford University’s David Vines believes the New Keynesian DSGE model is salvageable – but needs some serious work
BoE’s latest big data project targets labour mismatches
Eliminating regional mismatch could have prevented productivity shortfall, researchers find
Fed paper builds dynamic factor model for nowcasting
Model produces “reasonably good” estimates of Ecuadorian GDP and outperforms other models
NY Fed paper: ‘replacement hiring’ affects productivity wage gap
Replacement hiring can explain much of the gap between wages and productivity, authors say
UAE plugs in to IMF’s enhanced data standards
IMF’s chief statistician hails the move as an “important step forward”
Woodford shows finite horizons matter when modelling
Removing rational expectations can change key economic results, says Michael Woodford
Central bankers share vision for ‘business as usual’ big data
Panellists offer advice on how to build the infrastructure for good data governance
Andy Haldane rethinks traditional growth narrative
New research implies growth did not “flatline” before the industrial revolution
BoE paper models bank runs in general equilibrium
Daisuke Ikeda finds regulations must be comprehensive to prevent risk shifting
BIS authors document ‘significant’ shifts in CDS risks
Credit default swaps market has changed “markedly” since 2008, authors say
Europe needs banking union to counter slower growth - Danish governor
Ageing population may slow GDP growth by 0.5% annually in coming years, Rohde says
Good policy makes Phillips curve harder to identify – BoE’s Tenreyro
MPC member argues fears the Phillips curve has disappeared are “largely misplaced”
Brainard says yield curve inversion may not presage recession
Flatter yield curve “may temper somewhat” fears of a coming recession, says governor
Trump appears to pre-signal strong jobs data
US jobs report shows large increase in jobs and further drop in unemployment
Technology is threatening living standards of low-skilled workers - Dallas Fed president
Millions of US workers are “having a hard time”, Kaplan says
UK statistics authority disagrees with BoE on snow impact
ONS says snow had limited impact on Q1 GDP, contradicting the BoE’s account
Fed survey reports increased US economic prosperity
Inequality across ethnic groups, regions and educational levels remains a key economic factor
BoE paper studies ‘multiplex’ network model of derivatives market
Low liquidity buffers can lead to significant spillovers for some firms, authors warn
Housing inequality creates credit inequality – NY Fed’s Hirtle
Older people with less need of credit have seen the value of their collateral rise more