Brainard says yield curve inversion may not presage recession

Lael Brainard
Lael Brainard

Yield curve inversion in the US has typically been an indicator of forthcoming recession, but this time may be different, Lael Brainard said on May 31.

The Federal Reserve governor acknowledged periods of inversion – when short rates rise relative to long rates – have a “reliable track record of predicting recessions in the United States”.

But in her remarks to the Forecasters Club of New York, Brainard stressed the yield curve was currently much flatter than it has been in the past. The term

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