Economics
Chinese inflation rebounds amid easing of monetary policy
CPI hits 2.3% in March, the highest level in five months, while PPI reverses its declining trend since late 2017
Informal sector changes inflation dynamics – BIS paper
Informality dampens impact of some shocks but also impairs policy transmission, authors find
IMF cuts growth forecasts for most economies
Japan and China are the only two to receive a more optimistic outlook from the IMF; global economy at a “delicate moment”, says Gita Gopinath
Fed launches database on household wealth distribution
Database designed to help policy-makers understand the impact of their decisions on patterns of inequality
Ageing workforce depresses wage inflation – BIS paper
Demographic change could be behind weakness of inflation despite record-low unemployment
Borio questions Larry Summers on ‘secular stagnation’
Two teams of economists present fresh evidence for divergent views of low real rates
RBNZ paper seeks high-speed labour market indicator
“Midas” approach can help build picture of current state of labour markets, say economists
Podcast: Greg Kaplan on heterogeneous-agent models
Monetary and fiscal policy are much more closely connected than many central banks would like
Summers and Rachel set out fresh evidence on secular stagnation
Policy-makers may need to rethink their approach in a world of ultra-low real rates, authors say
Non-financial firms finance the economy – BIS paper
Authors find non-financial firms act as important intermediators and take on forex risks
BoE economists find CBDC could permit helicopter money
Helicopter drop could be feasible without losing control of rates but may still be unwise, authors say
Europe’s ‘zombie lending’ harmed recovery – BoE paper
Forbearance appears to harm output, investment and total factor productivity, paper finds
Trade tensions could ripple among South-east Asian nations – Menon
Rising leverage ratios a key risk for EM Asia, but the region is more resilient
BoE economists build news-based growth indicator
Newspaper articles can be boiled down to a useful early indicator of economic activity, they say
Book notes: Where economics went wrong, by David Colander and Craig Freedman
Chicago economics’ gladiatorial debating style has cost the discipline dearly, the authors argue
Polarised labour market has left low-skilled workers vulnerable – research
Technology and globalisation have hit wages of less skilled urban workers, says David Autor
SBP launches Islamic facility to fund renewables and SMEs
Central bank looks to supply liquidity to key industries
BoE paper outlines results of uncertainty experiment
Decision-maker panel seeks to gauge business uncertainty in the context of Brexit
Chinese lending hits all-time high in January
Total social financing reached roughly 240% of China’s GDP at end of month
GDP needs to be supplemented with welfare measure – economist
Daniel Sichel defends GDP as a measure of production, but says it is not enough on its own
UK economy stumbles as Brexit looms
Quarterly growth slips to 0.2% in final quarter of 2018, and monthly growth turns negative in December; business investment also down
Low rates can harm productivity, say Liu, Mian and Sufi
Low rates may end up discouraging investment across the economy, authors say
‘Global inflation gap’ points to slack across advanced economies – paper
Authors find no evidence that inflation is “on the brink of surging ahead”
Euro outpacing dollar as cross-border credit grows
Latest BIS statistics show widening gap between credit growth in the two major currencies