Economics
Misinterpreting commodity price swings can be damaging – BIS paper
Whether movements are down to supply shocks or changes in global demand matters for policy, and mistakes can be procyclical when central banks act together
Central bank communications risk circularity, says BIS paper
Policy communications influence market prices and market prices influence policy, warn Stephen Morris and Hyun Song Shin
Income convergence in reverse among original euro members, research says
Fall in income disparities halted soon after 2002 and started to increase after financial crisis
Rebased ‘Maddison’ data reshapes economic history
New approach to measuring GDP per capita generates fresh insights from the long-run growth database
Bank Indonesia launches joint initiative as rice prices bite
Indonesian central bank and government announce joint measures to control inflation arising from food price volatility
Central Banking Awards: Bank of Canada is central bank of the year
Awards go to the Bank of Canada, PriceStats, Perago and De La Rue
Liberalising services trade could tackle imbalances – BoE paper
Finding ways of reducing barriers to services trade could substantially cut imbalances
ESM hails Greece’s progress in third bailout
The country should exit the programme in August as growth accelerates and bond yields fall
Menon warns of Singapore's ‘demographic trilemma’
MAS chief says Singapore “must accept” slower growth of the labour force, but should also face up to the need for solutions
Fed paper models risk-taking channel of monetary policy
Model in which monetary expansion increases risk-taking appears to fit with the data
BIS paper: unconventional policies may have depressed natural rate
Economists find shifts in estimates of the natural rate co-move with unexpected changes in unconventional policy
Bundesbank panellists call for change in German ‘mindset’
Mario Monti says he would like to free Germans from their economic “straightjacket”, while Benoît Cœuré hints at need for rebalancing
Big data can give valuable labour market signal – Fed paper
High-frequency private payroll data is useful in forecasting the labour market, researchers find
BoE economists challenge conventional wisdom on yield curve
Steeper curve may not be as good for bank profitability as widely believed
German coalition talks open possibility of reformed ESM
European Commission proposed creating a new institution to lead crisis programmes in December
BoE’s Tenreyro sees hopeful signs for UK productivity
Many factors dragging on productivity may soon start to fade, MPC member says, though the UK seems to be missing out on a global investment boom
‘Goldilocks economy’ implies bears may not be far away – Menon
Despite reasons for optimism, “three grumpy bears” may soon return, says MAS chief
Economists need to better understand macrofinancial links – BIS paper
Stijn Claessens and Ayhan Kose call for “new generation of models” among other research to solve ongoing puzzles
Combined nowcasts can improve GDP estimates – paper
Paper compares performance of nowcast models in estimating GDP from 2016–2015
Dudley warns Trump tax plan leaves US finances ‘unsustainable’
New York Fed chief says policymakers may have to tighten rates harder to offset stimulus
BIS paper explores effects of global factors on inflation
Authors find impact of global factors is mainly temporary, but the effects appear more significant for countries without long-established inflation targets
Macroeconomics suffers from blind spot, says Borio
Misallocated resources can explain a large part of recent productivity slowdowns, but thinking in aggregate terms obscures this, says BIS economist
Financial initiatives may bypass people with lower financial literacy, paper says
Reforms in Israel designed to benefit the whole population did not reach some groups
Veteran economists weigh in on ‘rebuilding’ macro theory
Economists including Olivier Blanchard, Andy Haldane and Simon Wren-Lewis tackle the question of how – and whether – to save the DSGE model