Economics
Nafta deal to reduce uncertainty in Canada and Mexico
Regional rate-setters have become increasingly concerned about effects of trade disruptions
Italy’s expansionary budget increases pressure on debt
Draghi warns government plans have tightened financial conditions for households and businesses
US growth remains solid in Q3 – Atlanta Fed
Real-time GDP estimation signals 4.4% growth in current quarter
Market power, intangibles and risk premia behind low risk-free rates – paper
Brookings paper questions savings glut and technological slowdown hypotheses
Book notes: The other half of macroeconomics, by Richard Koo
Richard Koo questions whether central bank policy can work during a balance sheet recession, writes Graham Bannock
Automation of financial services poses problem for labour market
Central bankers fear the labour market may not recover as quickly as during previous technological revolutions
Carney warns no-deal Brexit would squeeze real income
Governor informs Treasury Committee of household “real income squeeze” in the event of a no-deal Brexit; Mervyn King calls government’s Brexit preparations “incompetent”
Inattention helps explain flat Phillips curve – Fed paper
Inflation may be less sensitive to shocks because people are not paying attention, authors say
IMF paper builds corruption indicator using big data
Corruption shocks negatively impact long-term real outcomes, authors say
Weidmann urges Greece to implement further reforms
Deutsche Bundesbank president recommends additional reforms and “sound” fiscal policy
Global crisis uncertainty harmed investment – BoE paper
Authors say their results offer a benchmark for possible Brexit-related uncertainty
IMF authors dismiss global Phillips curve as euro inflation driver
Domestic factors largely behind “remarkably stable” inflation in eurozone
Jackson Hole: policy-makers come to defence of disruption
Poloz and Carstens highlight benefits of technological and trade disruption; monetary policy can cope with the uncertainty, Bank of Canada governor says
Atlanta Fed estimates US GDP growth remains above 4%
Economy expanded by 4.1% in Q2, in strongest performance since mid-2014
New York Fed publishes nowcasting code
Matlab code for estimating a dynamic factor model now available in online repository
West Bank weakness drives economic slowdown in Palestine
Palestine Monetary Authority notes “significant drop” in West Bank conditions index
Non-linear mortgage features can impact policymaking – BoE paper
Non-linear features of mortgages impact policymaking in a DSGE model, the authors find
Imperfect algorithms impact market pricing – Fed paper
News-parsing algorithms create temporary distortions and may cut liquidity, paper finds
US could lose a third of growth to climate change – Richmond Fed article
Authors warn economic damage could be much more widespread than typically assumed
Zimbabwean economy faces uncertainty after controversial election result
Violence and accusations of unfairness around the presidential election have dampened hopes of economic recovery
Big data in central banks: 2018 survey results
As work in big data enters the mainstream for central banks, its policymaking and supervisory influence is expanding, prompting significant investment in new technologies.
BIS paper links Japan’s household debt to consumption behaviour
The researcher examines how Japanese household debt affects marginal propensity to consume
BoE paper uses millions of job adverts to understand labour market
Researchers analysed 15 million adverts over eight years to categorise jobs
US dollar credit to emerging markets growing faster, reveals BIS data
Growth in dollar-denominated debts up 9%, with growth in debt securities even faster