The $1.9 trillion stimulus package passed earlier this year will only modestly affect prices, according to new research from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. The paper predicts only a small increase in a key core inflation measure until 2022.

The authors – Regis Barnichon, Luiz Oliveira and Adam Shapiro – measure the ratio between unemployment and vacancies to get an idea of pressure in the labour market. They find that there are about 1.25 vacancies per unemployed person. This figure