Tariffs
Maurice Obstfeld on the trade war’s damage to the monetary system
The former IMF chief economist speaks about Trump’s chaotic economic policies, the erosion of Fed independence and dollar stability, difficult policy trade-offs for central banks, and the threat to the Bretton Woods institutions
ECB says tariff shocks ‘continue to reverberate’
Stability review says risk of slowdown has “increased markedly”, though banks are better placed than in 2008
Banks should ‘regularly’ assess clients’ exposure to tariffs – ECB
Rising trade tensions threaten financial stability, bank’s economists say
Romania opts to hold, citing domestic and global uncertainty
Central bank cites fluctuating commodity prices, tariff risks and volatility resulting from national politics
Bank of Mexico puts growth before prices with rate cut
Economists say decision reflects concerns about possible tariff-induced recession
Dallas Fed study adds to official scepticism of US tariffs
Research says potential for domestic gains will depend on other countries not responding
Lenders to export-oriented firms may face losses – Danish governor
Nødgaard also recommends that banks improve their cyber defence plans
German and Spanish governors criticise US policies
Nagel defends Fed independence, while Escrivá cautions against excessive deregulation
BoE to consult on promoting clearing for gilt repo market
Deputy governor also takes aim at bilateral repo haircuts and cross-CCP netting
Tariffs already raising US inflation – Fed study
Researchers say trade policies were starting to affect consumer prices in March
EBRD outlook turns gloomy after US tariffs
“Not a very happy picture” for world economy, says institution’s chief economist
Hedge funds burned as Hong Kong dollar bets implode
However, market participants still seem satisfied with the HKMA’s commitment to defending currency peg
Albania, Norway, Sweden hold rates, Poland cuts by 50bp
Falling food and energy prices amid high trade uncertainty prompt cautious approaches
The cost of ‘US liberation’
Stephen Millard outlines NIESR’s latest analysis of the Trump tariffs, as risks tilt to the downside
Fed holds rates as experts sound alarm over stagflation
FOMC says risks have risen on both the employment and inflation sides of its mandate
Taiwan says currency surge unrelated to trade talks with US
Rumours of “Mar-a-Lago accord” causing NT$ appreciation are “false”, central bank says
Eurozone exports to US unlikely to rise in trade war – ECB study
US tariffs rerouted Chinese goods to eurozone, but exporters there failed to boost US presence
Experts divided over contraction in US economy
Ex-NY Fed chief says latest figures are an anomaly, though others point to Trump policies’ impact
Almost half of eurozone ready to stop buying US goods – ECB study
Tariffs have triggered significant animosity among consumers, research finds
US Basel equivalence questioned as EU patience wears thin
MEPs say unfaithful US implementation of Basel III could trigger review of access to EU markets
Yen rates losses from tariff drama top $1 billion
Losses came from forced unwinds of bets on BoJ rate rises
‘Liberation day’ likely to cause US recession – NBER study
Paper sets out conditions for tariff-driven downturn and says US is likely to meet them
Trump makes a U-turn on Powell
President “might” call Fed chair about lowering rates, but claims he never had any intention of firing him
CBCS analysis points to pronounced risks of global trade war
Central Bank of Curaçao and Sint Maarten says firms should diversify supply chains away from US