Tariffs
US faces recession unless trade tensions abate – economists
Experts expect Fed to cut rates as economy experiences first job losses since 2020
How FX pricing is adapting to Trumpian markets
Dealers are tying pricing engines to new signals in effort to cope with out-of-the-blue moves
Bar for going back into negative rates is high – SNB chair
Schlegel says impact on pensions and savers means caution would be warranted
‘Liberation Day’ triggered demand for dollar-backed stablecoins
Researchers find effect was stronger in countries subject to higher US tariffs
Malaysia holds policy after sanguine economic forecasts
Central bank says trade uncertainties remain but have abated somewhat
Tariffs may lower the natural interest rate – research
Increased trade costs reduce demand for capital, say authors
No ‘race to the bottom’ if Fed is forced to cut – Schnabel
ECB board member says politicised US central bank would be “very disruptive”
BoJ deputy governor says policy should be tightened further
Ryozo Himino says real interest rate remains low, despite three hikes since last year
Lagarde says US-EU deal lowered uncertainty ‘considerably’
ECB president voices concern over Fed independence, French debt
Financial Stability Benchmarks 2025 – executive summary
Data sheds light on central banks’ assessment of tariff risks and other financial stability threats
Thai central bank warns country’s SMEs vulnerable to US tariffs
Bank of Thailand monetary policy committee signals further easing likely, minutes show
Philippines eases policy 25bp to 5% ‘Goldilocks zone’
BSP governor says one more cut likely this year as bank cites risks posed by US trade policy
Financial Stability Benchmarks 2025 report – the threat from tariffs
Benchmarks highlight how many central banks see tariffs as a high risk to financial stability
Riksbank holds rates, signals one more cut possible in 2025
Lacklustre economic activity and higher-than-expected inflation fail to convince bank to cut
New Zealand cuts policy rate as economic recovery ‘stalls’
Central bank cuts policy rate 25bp saying global uncertainty caused economic slowdown
BoE’s Benjamin on market resilience, non-bank liquidity and the modern financial system
The UK central bank’s executive director for financial stability strategy and risk speaks about leverage in the gilt repo market, minimum haircuts and central clearing, and securing liquidity to where it’s needed
Norges Bank strikes hawkish tone with rates hold
Inflation “in line” with June projection and two cuts still on table for this year, central bank says
Investor sentiment now back at pre-tariff level – BIS study
However, authors warn that accommodative conditions could reverse at any time and trigger disruption
Tariffs only partly explain April’s volatility – BIS paper
Movements in dollar and Treasury term spread driven by other factors, authors say
US’s gains from tariffs diminish when countries retaliate – study
Dallas Fed authors say negotiated settlements may be best for all concerned
BoJ eyes further rate hikes, possibly by year’s end
Central bank says global economies’ resilience to tariffs “remarkable”, while predicting slowdown
BoK governor expresses confidence in finance minister
Rhee’s comments follow apparent discord between bank and government over digital assets policy
Trump’s tariffs and the emerging market economies
Steve Kamin says EMEs are likely to escape the worst outcomes from capricious and chaotic trade policy
India holds policy, thus ending easing cycle
Central bank leaves rate at 5.5%, citing lower inflation and continued risks from US tariffs