Interest rates
Turkish central bank narrows rate corridor with cut
Central bank begins process of narrowing rate corridor in last meeting of Erdem Başçı’s term, though it keeps the policy rate on hold
Monetary policy takes time to influence inflation, Tombini tells senate
Brazil governor says central bank will not “shy away” from acting to lower inflation; target of 4.5% to be reached by the end of 2017
Negative rates one of many pressures on bank business models, Lautenschläger says
ECB supervisory board vice-chair says business models must cope with a range of challenges, of which low rates are just one; Nouy and Lautenschläger field questions following annual report
Sweden’s Riksbank has mixed forecasting performance, report finds
Riksbank “relatively good” at projecting growth and unemployment, but less so when it comes to the policy rate; this is “notable” and not “particularly satisfactory”, report notes
IMF paper explores spillovers from conventional and Islamic finance
Research considers how monetary policy should adapt to the different stages of development of Islamic finance, and its interactions with conventional finance
Sarb hikes rate despite split decision on MPC
Monetary policy committee decides to raise key rate by 25bp after an initial 3:3 split; concerns over inflation remain for some members
BoE alert to second-round effects from low inflation, minutes show
BoE enters eighth year with rate at 0.5%; committee will continue to watch for second-round effects of inflation on wages
Norges Bank willing to consider move into negative territory
Central bank cuts rates to 0.5% and signals further action likely to follow; executive board concerned by side-effects of negative rates, but willing to use them if necessary
Fed officials lower expectations of rate increases
Fed officials forecast rate increase of 50bp this year, compared with 100bp in December; Yellen “wary” of recent increase in headline inflation
BoJ spells out operational details for negative rates
Policy board will review exemptions from negative interest rate every three months; banks given new incentive to borrow from the central bank under its targeted programmes
Research sheds light on RBNZ concerns over inflation expectations
Article authored by, among others, John McDermott argues the risk of inflation expectations losing their anchor has increased; concerns were a ‘primary motive’ for last week’s rate cut
TLTRO II may reflect renewed ECB focus on transmission, analysts say
The European Central Bank’s decision to operate a second targeted long-term refinancing operation would help provide banks with ‘stability’, according to Draghi
Inflation target and interest rates about right, UK survey suggest
Median expectations of inflation for 2016 were 1.8%; largest share of UK public says it is best for the economy if interest rates stay where they are
ECB launches ‘comprehensive package’ as inflation outlook worsens
Mario Draghi announces cuts in interest rates and an expansion to the ECB’s asset-purchase programme, as well as a second TLTRO package, larger than the original
RBNZ tweaks forecasting models and cuts key rate
Reserve Bank of New Zealand cuts rates by 25bp to 2.25% in attempt to prevent inflation expectations from falling further; updates models in wake of optimistic forecasts
Paper finds evidence in favour of ‘exchange-rate-anchored inflation targeting’
A working paper published by the IMF finds ‘tight management’ of the exchange rate can help support inflation targeting in ‘less developed countries’
Angola appoints new governor as de Morais departs
Silva takes over from de Morais as part of a government reshuffle; has previously provided counsel to country’s vice-president
IMF welcomes Indian inflation progress, but RBI should ‘stand ready’
IMF welcomes progress made with inflation targeting in India; calls for “growth-friendly” fiscal consolidation to support monetary policy
Turkey’s Kenç sheds light on central bank ‘roadmap’
Deputy governor tells Central Banking conference that a 'roadmap' of policy changes helps improve confidence in the economy; says the central bank has gained market trust despite independence fears
US monetary policy contraction means drop in global output – paper
Raising interest rates in the US leads to lower global output and inflation in the short term; most 'pronounced' responses evident in the mid-1990s to mid-2000s
BoJ’s Nakaso insists deposit rates are not going negative
Deputy says a 'wide range' of interest rates will fall due to the BoJ’s negative rate policy, but experience in Europe implies depositors will not suffer
Turkish MPC eyes volatility as it prepares move to standardised framework
Decline in volatility will be key factor in move to a narrower interest rate corridor, minutes say; central bank expects disinflation in February after headline figure hit 9.6% in January
Central Bank of Malta revamps main structural model
Version three of the ‘Stream’ model captures the interlinked nature of the fiscal and financial sectors, with extra detail added to the financial block and new data used for estimation