Interest rates
Yellen warns not to 'overblow' liftoff as Federal Reserve raises rates
Federal Open Market Committee will keep close eye on ‘actual and expected progress’ toward 2% inflation, after embarking on first tightening cycle since 2006 with 25bp hike
BIS deputy warns all economies must manage ‘sudden floods’ of capital
Advanced economies face the same floods of capital as emerging markets, and may be hit by other spillovers that are not yet well understood, Luis Awazu Pereira da Silva says
BIS paper finds close link between MBS and bond yields
Authors find ‘strong empirical evidence’ for feedback between mortgage-backed securities and bond yields, with the effects proving transient and ‘hump-shaped’
Pakistan central bank ‘implicitly’ introduced new policy framework ahead of time
State Bank of Pakistan reveals it ‘implicitly’ introduced a new framework for monetary policy before it was officially announced, to avoid ‘unnecessary volatility’ in money market
BoE paper explores monetary and macro-prudential policy interactions
Macroeconomic and financial frictions in an economy can require ‘intervention of opposite direction’ on the interest rate, which a second instrument can help mitigate, paper finds
BoE’s Shafik says wages key to rate hike
Deputy governor says economy has been difficult to read in recent years but stronger growth in wages would be a major factor in prompting her to vote for a rate hike
BIS’s Shin highlights global liquidity dilemma for EMs
Head of research points to an uncomfortable balancing act among emerging markets exposed to foreign currency debt, which may be a factor behind the recent slowdown in their economies
Further macro-prudential policies ‘may be needed’ in UK, says IMF
Staff say existing measures have eased but not eliminated risks to household finances; encourage BoE to keep monetary policy unchanged until inflationary pressures are ‘clearer’
RBNZ cuts rates for fourth time this year
Central bank resumes easing policy and lowers OCR by 25bp to 2.5%; expects inflation to move towards target range in early 2016
Bank of Canada adds negative rates to toolkit
Central bank publishes new framework for monetary policy when interest rates are approaching zero, suggesting the overnight rate could be cut as low as -0.5%
Forecasters expected ‘significant’ drop in bond yields in wake of Fed easing, paper finds
Staff report published by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York examines how professional forecasters revised their predictions in aftermath of Fed decisions
Draghi reasserts ECB’s willingness to act
Mario Draghi says there cannot be any limit to how far the ECB is willing to deploy its instruments within its mandate, after easing package meets with lukewarm reaction on markets
ECB extends asset purchases to March 2017 or beyond and cuts deposit rate
European Central Bank will continue buying assets until at least March 2017 as part of latest easing package; Draghi describes deposit rate as ‘driver’ of policy as council cuts it to -0.3%
Sarb deputy sees opportunity for reserve managers in Fed hike
Daniel Mminele encourages reserve managers to focus on the ‘investment horizon’ to take advantage of higher yields in the wake of Fed action
Yellen signals growing confidence ahead of Fed decision
Fed chair expects some key headwinds to inflation to diminish next year; continued improvements in labour market and stable expectations help ‘bolster’ her confidence in a return to target
‘Gradual and low’ may be new normal for Fed, Brainard says
Lael Brainard says lower neutral interest rates and stubborn inflation make it likely the federal funds rate will need to be tightened ‘more gradually and to a lower level’ than in the past
Researchers examine impact of fiscal conditions on long-term rates in OECD
Working paper published by the Bank of Japan analyses 23 member states between 1980 to 2013; finds fiscal conditions impact rates in host of ways
BIS paper presents interbank money market model
Researchers produce ‘search-based’ model designed to reflect interbank markets in the presence of a central bank corridor system, allowing them to compute the effective interest rate
Trinidad and Tobago aims to stay a step ahead of the Fed
Jwala Rambarran tells Central Banking the central bank must remain ‘ahead of the curve’ and ensure a ‘strong enough’ rate differential between assets denominated in local and US currency
Shift in FOMC language intended to show December hike ‘may well become appropriate’
Minutes from October meeting reveal thinking behind change in language; a ‘couple’ of members raised concerns the change could be misinterpreted as a stronger signal than it was
Sarb raises rate 25bp now to avoid bigger move later
Increasing risk of inflation spurs the South African Reserve Bank to raise its key rate by 25 basis points to 6.25%; two out of six MPC members preferred not to move
RBA’s Debelle outlines potential benchmark rate reform
Australian consultation paper suggests modifications to the calculation of the bank bill swap rate, with one option expanding the set of transactions covered
Canadian paper sees costs to leaning against the wind
Research estimates difference in policy rates between ‘lean’ and ‘clean’ central banks, while identifying costs in terms of inflation and output deviations
Haldane charts impact of automation on UK economy
Up to 15 million jobs could be at risk from automation in the UK alone, the BoE’s chief economist says, adding a rate rise is unnecessary at this juncture