Growth
Economists outline improved DSGE forecasting method
Bank of England working paper attempts to improve forecast performance by using a multi-step approach to estimating parameters, delivering what the authors say are ‘significant’ improvements
RBA’s Kent sees positive side to Chinese readjustment
China’s economic rebalancing is likely to bring benefits to Australia’s economy as well as costs, Reserve Bank of Australia assistant governor says
Riksbank paper examines mixed forecast performance
Researchers find the central bank has tended to be overly optimistic on foreign economic performance, but makes similar errors to other institutions
Kganyago defends bank’s inflation targeting regime
South African Reserve Bank governor insists striving to meet an inflation target is not the same as ignoring growth, in speech in Cape Town
RBI advisers supported rate cut, minutes show
Minutes of technical advisory committee meeting show six of seven members recommended a cut as inflation in India had fallen ‘dramatically’ and growth proved elusive
BoE’s new MPC member grilled on financial assets
Treasury Committee questions Gertjan Vlieghe on real or perceived conflict of interest; Ian McCafferty justifies view on rate hike in reappointment hearing
IMF paper challenges idea of debt threshold effect
Countries with high levels of public debt can grow just as fast as their peers, provided the debt is on a downward trajectory, research finds
Inflation targeting should be improved, not replaced, RBA paper says
Rather than a ‘fundamental re-engineering’ of inflation targeting, central banks should adopt a flexible approach that pays some heed to output, authors argue
Iceland hikes again amid inflation shock
Large wage increases force central bank to reassess its inflation forecast and hike rates for a second meeting in a row, with more likely to follow
China should ‘rein in’ vulnerabilities, IMF warns
Economy faces challenge in balancing reform and growth, with IMF warning of growing risks in the financial system and need for further rebalancing
Iranian deputy points to economic turnaround since Rouhani took office
Deputy governor says central bank has managed to impose new discipline on the economy, but sees room for improvement in the broader Islamic world
RBA’s Kent seeks to explain divergent labour and growth outcomes
Assistant governor says range of factors may have contributed to a unexpectedly strong performance of Australian unemployment, even as growth remains subdued
Norges Bank paper outlines forecasting method for big data
Researchers aim to forecast US stock market and economy using a Bayesian non-parametric model, with a dataset large enough that computing power becomes a problem
IMF warns on sanctions impact as Russia cuts rates
Article IV report highlights problem of high inflation and low growth, coupled with financial instability resulting from sanctions, and calls for rate cuts to continue at a 'prudent pace'
Bank of Korea research tots up damage from capital flows
Researchers attempt to measure the impact of foreign financial flows on the real economy, finding the type of flow matters for growth, but all types increase volatility
BoJ paper builds model of secular stagnation
Authors find scrapping the idea of a single representative household allows New Keynesian models to portray secular stagnation – and a high inflation target fixes the problem
IMF urges Bank of Japan to 'stand ready' to up asset purchases
Article IV report says Bank of Japan should improve communication and be prepared to expand easing measures, as weak policy transmission creates a ‘conundrum’
RBA’s Stevens wants reforms framed as positive narrative
Glenn Stevens argues the average citizen cares about economic potential, and reforms should be presented ‘as a positive narrative’ for growth
Kuroda flags three traps Asia should avoid
BoJ governor points to three traps that threaten growth in Asia and says boosting productivity is the best way to avoid becoming ensnared
Carney sees BoE inching towards rate hike
BoE governor says debate over rate hike will ‘come into sharper relief’ around turn of the year, but reiterates upward path will be shallow and any hike is data-dependent
Fed beige book points to areas of optimism
Most districts report economic activity as expanding at a ‘modest’ or ‘moderate’ pace, while many contacts indicate ‘optimism’ about future growth
Bank of Canada cuts rates to support ‘complex adjustment’
Central bank says economy needs additional support as it restructures in response to complex impact from oil price shock; fears remain over imbalances in household sector
BoE officials say UK may be starting to throw off productivity woes
There are signs the UK may be emerging from the ‘long, dark tunnel’ of weak productivity, officials tell the Treasury Committee; government’s minimum wage plans may be a positive factor
Former Afghan governor returns for second term
Khalilullah Sediq takes over for a second time as governor of the Bank of Afghanistan, following a spell in the private sector