Growth
Rebased ‘Maddison’ data reshapes economic history
New approach to measuring GDP per capita generates fresh insights from the long-run growth database
South Africa needs to press ‘reset button’ in 2018 – Mminele
Economy floundered after political instability harmed investor confidence; South Africa should capitalise on the upswing of 2018, says Sarb deputy
Davos experts weigh risks of future crisis
High debt levels, a rise in real interest rates and China are on the agenda for the panellists, who believe another financial crisis is inevitable
IMF chief economist warns against ‘complacency’
Recent economic upturn should not be viewed as “new normal”, Obstfeld says, arguing policymakers should be looking to shore up defences
ECB’s corporate bond-buying had positive effect in Spain, research says
Stimulus reduced yields for non-financial firms and increased credit to smaller companies
Bank of Canada raises rates as economy nears potential
Central bank hikes the policy interest rate 25 basis points to 1.25%
Bundesbank panellists call for change in German ‘mindset’
Mario Monti says he would like to free Germans from their economic “straightjacket”, while Benoît Cœuré hints at need for rebalancing
Bank of Korea on hold amid policy dilemma
Strong won and benign inflation likely to keep the BoK on hold in the first half of 2018
Kazakhstan cuts rates on low inflation and weak demand
Central bank reduces key rate to 9.75% from 10.25%, inflation below forecast in 2017
‘Goldilocks economy’ implies bears may not be far away – Menon
Despite reasons for optimism, “three grumpy bears” may soon return, says MAS chief
Morocco introduces a more flexible exchange rate
The central bank introduces a daily band of 5% for the dirham to trade against major currencies
Macroeconomists should integrate climate change data into their models, research finds
Paper calls for the use of scientific data on weather and the prediction of extreme climate events
Combined nowcasts can improve GDP estimates – paper
Paper compares performance of nowcast models in estimating GDP from 2016–2015
Dudley warns Trump tax plan leaves US finances ‘unsustainable’
New York Fed chief says policymakers may have to tighten rates harder to offset stimulus
ECB policymakers see a robust economic recovery – minutes
Rate setters satisfied with the impact of the QE extension decided in October
IMF’s Obstfeld: effects of accommodative policy remain unclear
The IMF chief economist weighs up the productivity puzzle and whether monetary policy helped or hindered growth following the financial crisis
Argentina cuts rates, but keeps focus on inflation
Analysts express concerns over the decision, as inflation remains high
Bernanke says Fed likely to review policy framework
Former Fed chair says analysis on change to inflation targeting is likely; panel of experts presents wide range of views on what any change should be
First Romanian policy hike in a decade
Central bank hikes policy rate for the first time since 2008, as inflation exceeds forecasts
‘Decisive’ action needed to deflate China’s credit boom – IMF paper
Lack of reliance on foreign financing, low government debt, and state control help to mitigate effects of credit boom, but buffers should not be relied upon in the long run
BIS paper asks what makes emerging market banks profitable
Both bank-specific and economy-wide factors affect banks’ profitability, authors find
Older workforce will reduce Danish growth, central bank says
Reforms to expand labour supply are needed to offset negative effects of demography
Progress on policy offset by shocks from bad weather – CBSL governor
Sri Lanka suffered from both droughts and floods in 2017 but new policy measures are helping stabilise the economy, says Indrajit Coomaraswamy
New US tax plan promising for growth – Fed minutes
FOMC members revise the growth outlook upwards for next 12 months, as tax cuts promise to provide “some boost” to consumer spending