Growth
BoE’s FPC flags climate change financial stability risks
Financial policy committee divides issue into physical risks and transitional risks, seeing some potential for instability from climate change but calling for further research
IMF calls for demand boost to avoid 'new reality' of lower potential
IMF World Economic Outlook contains echoes of Larry Summers' view that the world's economies need shock therapy to avoid secular stagnation
Fed paper measures damage from capital flow surges
Researchers find surging capital flows push labour away from manufacturing, create sudden booms and recessions, and do more damage if there is a sudden reversal
Romer and Romer find financial crisis impact ‘not large’
NBER working paper constructs new series on financial distress in advanced economies to better capture degrees of financial crisis; finds output declines are ‘moderate and largely temporary’
IMF tells SNB to consider asset purchases
In the face of slowing growth and deepening deflation the Swiss National Bank should ease monetary policy, which could be done via purchases of foreign currency assets, IMF says
Bank of Israel studies economic damage from conflict
Latest hostilities between Israel and Palestine cost the Israeli economy around 0.3% of GDP, with effects stemming from falling tourism and lower consumption, annual report finds
BoJ’s easing boosts inequality, warns IMF paper
Working paper finds attempts to meet Japan’s 2% inflation target are increasing income growth and inequality; calls for structural reform to make this growth more inclusive
Norges Bank faces ‘ripple effects’ from oil price collapse
Norway heading in opposite direction to generally favourable global trend, central bank’s annual report warns; banking sector profitable and resilient nonetheless
Weakest economic data in years puts pressure on PBoC
Chinese rate cuts ‘imminent' as some of the worst figures since the financial crisis indicate economic slowdown is sharper than predicted, analysts say
Colombian paper finds structure matters in modelling oil shocks
Working paper finds evidence that the impact of an oil price shock on an oil-exporting country such as Colombia can be large, but depends on the structure of the economy
Greek governor calls for reform and coherent growth plan
Yannis Stournaras urges government to honour Greece’s commitments and reach a prompt agreement with its European partners, then focus on creating sustainable growth
Estonian governor tells MPs central banks cannot create long-term growth
Ardo Hansson says QE in the eurozone will help to improve confidence, but reforms are necessary for investors to believe the economy will grow
Haldane says ‘cocktail’ of psychology and sociology behind divergent growth
BoE chief economist draws on history, sociology and psychology – as well as economics – in seeking to explain why growth rates differ so widely
Bundesbank says German recovery is faster than expected
Monthly report highlights ‘remarkable’ rebound of German economy, leading forecasts to be revised upwards; oil and euro depreciation behind the boost
BIS paper finds stabilisation policy can impact long-run growth
Use of short-run interest rates has implications for long-run growth due to their effect on credit and liquidity supply, BIS working paper finds
Banque de France paper tackles ‘elasticity of poverty’
Researchers examine the extent to which growth in different sectors translates into a reduction in poverty for countries in Africa; commodity-driven economies particularly bad for the poor
Growth of finance sucks skill from real economy, BIS paper warns
Financial growth crowds out real growth by drawing skilled labour away from other industries, with R&D hit particularly hard, a working paper by Stephen Cecchetti and Enisse Kharroubi finds
BoE could ease with deflation looming
Record low inflation may turn negative in the spring, inflation report shows; Mark Carney says rate cuts and QE remain options but BoE still expects next move to be a rate hike
Japan at a turning point but liquidity risks loom, say panellists
Panel at Japan Securities Summit including BoJ’s Takehiro Sato believes Japan’s ‘certain, coordinated and creative’ policy mix will deliver the first turnaround in 20 years
G-20 leaders plan to scrutinise reform efforts
Leaders reaffirm commitment to reforms designed to raise global growth two percentage points and agree ‘robust monitoring framework’; OECD says reform progress has been patchy
FOMC members too bullish on growth, researchers at San Francisco Fed say
‘Persistent overoptimism' about future growth since financial crisis may be due to overestimation of monetary policy efficacy following a balance-sheet recession, authors find
Stevens gloomy on growth as RBA cuts
RBA governor warns Australian economy is showing greater signs of weakness than previously thought, in a statement announcing a cut in the interest rate to record low
Rajan says RBI is seeking ways to encourage foreign investment
RBI tightens rules for foreign investors but Rajan says central bank is looking into ways of encouraging desirable FDI flows; rates remain on hold
BIS paper argues debt overhang is ‘leading cause’ of sluggish growth
Paper by Stephanie Lo and Ken Rogoff finds debt overhang is the main factor behind countries struggling to recover from crisis, but high leverage may obscure other factors at play