GDP
IMF paper considers impact of quota change
Executive board has expressed ‘considerable support’ for an increase in the weighting of GDP in its quota formula; staff policy paper simulates the most likely changes to the formula’s make-up
Sri Lankan central bank defends GDP figures
Central bank hits back at accusations of overstated growth figures in latest annual report; insists it follows international best practices
The case for nominal GDP targeting by central banks
Central banks have experimented with new monetary policy approaches, with nominal GDP targeting the latest idea to be put forward. Richard Werner looks at the empirical data supporting such a policy
World Bank says east Asia and Pacific at risk of ‘overheating’
Asia-Pacific policymakers urged to consider withdrawing stimulus – fiscal and monetary – as region’s larger economies reach their productive capacity and face inflationary pressures
Palestine Monetary Authority finds greater parity between West Bank and Gaza territories
Palestinian central bank develops business-cycle indicator to assess economic performance in real time; finds gap in performance between two territories is shrinking
Contribution of Irish financial sector to GDP ‘overstated’
Paper questions the statistical methodology behind claim that Irish financial sector contributes €15 billion to country’s output
Central banks need to be wary of ‘new’ monetary policy trends
Policy-makers are reappraising the role of independent central banks pursuing inflation targets. Bernd Braasch1 encourages them to use sound evidence to inform their judgements
Bhutan governor gives banking sector assurances
Royal Monetary Authority of Bhutan 2011–12 annual report reveals ongoing liquidity crisis; inflation increases to 13.5%
Signal-extraction analysed by Latvian paper
Study considers ability of a regularised filter to extract signals from large data-sets
Swiss paper considers how GDP is best forecast
Study says forecasting the individual components of GDP does not produce results worthy of the additional effort
Peruvian paper seeks to fill data void between quarterly releases
Research published by Central Bank of Peru says monthly macroeconomic variables provide information that can be harnessed to predict quarterly aggregates
Linde says Spain on the path to fiscal adjustment
The governor of the Bank of Spain says country is attaining fiscal adjustment and the largest challenge to the economy is restoring market confidence
Canada paper analyses China impact on Latin America
Bank of Canada study investigates the significance of Chinese and US GDP on the transmission mechanism of business cycles to Latin America
Impending drop in economic growth, warns South African research
South African Reserve Bank working paper uses new model to analyse financial conditions; finds conditions have declined and threaten GDP growth
Fed’s Bernanke looks beyond broad market indicators
Fed chairman warns key aggregate metrics can miss economic pain felt by individuals and households; encourages development of economic measures to better assist with policy decisions
China hints at policy adjustments to support economy
People's Bank of China pledges to strengthen the 'fine-tuning' of monetary policy in the country; latest indication of growing anxiety over slowing economy
RBI shuns foreign investors and derivatives in favour of structural ALM, says former deputy governor
Shyamala Gopinath believes market structure and regulation can be used to create ‘natural’ asset and liability management; approach is superior to managing risks with financial hedges
Bundesbank raises 2012 growth prediction
German central bank records marginally more positive growth expectation for the economy this year; still harbours significant concerns on key issues such as unemployment
OECD laments fragile, uneven global recovery
Economic Outlook predicts slower GDP growth across OECD countries in 2012; discusses delicate recovery around the world
Differing growth predictions demonstrate uneven global recovery
European Commission estimates 0.3% contraction for eurozone GDP; Lithuania and Thailand meanwhile revise growth estimates upwards
IMF sounds warning over European deleveraging
Lagarde hopes to ‘significantly’ increase resources available to the IMF during spring meeting; Financial Stability Report also recognises need for increased firewall as deleveraging rages on in Europe
IMF's Shinohara airs concerns over slowing Asian growth
Weak demand in Europe and US has potential to harm growth prospects for Asia, says IMF deputy managing director
IMF working paper links democracy and GDP growth
International Monetary Fund researchers conclude that income inequality is key driver to the emergence of open societies
ECB reveals dip in G-20 GDP growth
European Central Bank announces G-20 GDP growth slowed to 0.7% in the fourth quarter of 2011