GDP
Kaplan urges careful consideration of volatility
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas president Robert Kaplan warns of the potential for further market volatility as normalisation continues
Better data collection would aid forecasting at Belize central bank, research argues
Forecasting could be improved with better data collection, working paper published by central bank finds
Brazil private growth expectations slide further
Brazilian economy will contract by 3.62% this year with inflation breaching the 10% barrier, private institutions say
Oil prices are key drivers of metal prices, Colombian paper suggests
Research utilising ‘frequency-domain approach’ finds oil prices may be a key drivers of metal prices; consider implications for commodity-rich nations
Poloz sees risks to inflation outlook as ‘roughly balanced’ as Canada holds rates
Canadian governor highlights ‘building’ economic momentum after central bank holds its target for the overnight rate at 0.5%
Turkish paper explores productivity differentials
Countries caught in middle-income trap suffered lower productivity gains than others that had ‘graduated’ from it, finds research focused on period from 1950-2005
Credit growth has had significant impact on EM growth, IMF paper says
IMF paper explores relationship between the level and composition of credit growth and real GDP growth across 31 emerging market economies
Colombia doubles value of largest banknote
Colombian central bank will issue new 100,000 note for the first time alongside five redesigned denominations in 2016
German reforms did not create eurozone imbalances, paper finds
German model illustrates the positive effect of structural labour reforms between 1999 and 2008 on GDP, consumption, investment and employment, but also the eurozone more widely
Ukraine strikes debt restructuring deal with main creditors
Agreement would see creditors accept 20% nominal haircut on $18bn worth of debt; finance minister and IMF head hail agreement and stress need for support among bondholders
Creating an effective equity market in China
Wang Jianxi, chairman of Shenyin and Wanguo Securities, sees the delicate balancing act of supervising the financial markets as key to developing a multi-layered capital market
Coping with risks associated with financial liberalisation in China
Financial reforms in China pose the risk of increased volatility in interest rates, financial fragility and loss of output
Five foundations for the reform of China
Cheng Siwei, chairman of IFF and former vice-chairman of the Standing Committee of the Ninth and Tenth National People’s Congresses, presents five foundations for aiding the country’s overall reform
Innovation gauntlet laid down to facilitate economic transformation
The continuity of China's ‘trial-and-error' social-reform philosophy is key to enabling innovative growth as the country reforms its capital market and develops sound bankruptcy procedures
'Learning by doing' has transformed Chinese growth
Learning through an experimental approach played an important role in the rapid productivity growth of China. But the country now faces rising income inequality
China's dual-economy poses major challenge for future development
China's unique central-local governance system facilitated growth through a ‘trial-and-error' strategy. But 35 years of high growth have created a dual economy, with both successful and failing parts
The transformation of China towards a modern economy
China has embarked on an unprecedented effort to stabilise growth while accelerating structural reforms towards an inclusive, sustainable, innovative and more open economy
Sponsored feature: Defining the ‘new normal’ in China
Setting ambitious targets and reaching them fast has been essential for more than three decades. But this growth-at-any-cost push is now being replaced with what China’s leaders call the ‘new normal’
St. Louis Fed’s Bullard makes case for NGDP target
Working paper questions appropriate monetary policy response at zero lower bound and explores the mechanics of a ‘special upward adjustment’ in the price level on credit market
IMF paper studies interest rate spreads in Pacific Island countries
Economic size, inflation, the quality of bank balance sheets and banking sector concentration influence interest rate spreads in Pacific Island countries, finds working paper
PBoC steps up support with reserve ratio cuts
People’s Bank of China cuts the ratio for the second time this year, with observers pointing to pressure on the monetary base from foreign exchange outflows as a motivating factor
Riksbank’s new approach to nowcasting reviewed
Article in Economic Review evaluates the forecasting performance of a dynamic factor model adopted by Sweden's central bank, finding it a useful addition to its suite of tools
Research considers effects of delaying fiscal consolidation on GDP
Working paper published by the IMF finds there are no ‘substantive gains’ to be had in GDP from delaying consolidation if multipliers are constant
Book notes: GDP: A Brief but Affectionate History, by Diane Coyle
A whistle-stop tour of the development of GDP, a workhorse of economic modelling and analysis