GDP
Innovation gauntlet laid down to facilitate economic transformation
The continuity of China's ‘trial-and-error' social-reform philosophy is key to enabling innovative growth as the country reforms its capital market and develops sound bankruptcy procedures
'Learning by doing' has transformed Chinese growth
Learning through an experimental approach played an important role in the rapid productivity growth of China. But the country now faces rising income inequality
China's dual-economy poses major challenge for future development
China's unique central-local governance system facilitated growth through a ‘trial-and-error' strategy. But 35 years of high growth have created a dual economy, with both successful and failing parts
The transformation of China towards a modern economy
China has embarked on an unprecedented effort to stabilise growth while accelerating structural reforms towards an inclusive, sustainable, innovative and more open economy
Sponsored feature: Defining the ‘new normal’ in China
Setting ambitious targets and reaching them fast has been essential for more than three decades. But this growth-at-any-cost push is now being replaced with what China’s leaders call the ‘new normal’
St. Louis Fed’s Bullard makes case for NGDP target
Working paper questions appropriate monetary policy response at zero lower bound and explores the mechanics of a ‘special upward adjustment’ in the price level on credit market
IMF paper studies interest rate spreads in Pacific Island countries
Economic size, inflation, the quality of bank balance sheets and banking sector concentration influence interest rate spreads in Pacific Island countries, finds working paper
PBoC steps up support with reserve ratio cuts
People’s Bank of China cuts the ratio for the second time this year, with observers pointing to pressure on the monetary base from foreign exchange outflows as a motivating factor
Riksbank’s new approach to nowcasting reviewed
Article in Economic Review evaluates the forecasting performance of a dynamic factor model adopted by Sweden's central bank, finding it a useful addition to its suite of tools
Research considers effects of delaying fiscal consolidation on GDP
Working paper published by the IMF finds there are no ‘substantive gains’ to be had in GDP from delaying consolidation if multipliers are constant
Book notes: GDP: A Brief but Affectionate History, by Diane Coyle
A whistle-stop tour of the development of GDP, a workhorse of economic modelling and analysis
Models with time-varying parameters improve GDP forecasting, finds Croatian working paper
Research finds that Bayesian models are better at predicting short-term GDP fluctuations in Croatia than naive benchmark models
RBA paper aims to reduce noise in GDP calculation
Researchers combine three measures of Australian GDP to produce a measure they say is less volatile and easier to calculate
Spanish economists adapt model on business cycle conditions to forecast growth
Working paper published by the Bank of Spain extends an existing model on US business cycle conditions to forecast GDP growth in real time
PBoC chief economist sees ‘very low’ risk of hard landing
Ma Jun argues slowdown in investment will be offset by services and health care spending; describes Hong Kong-Shanghai ‘stock connect' programme as 'major breakthrough'
Linde points to growing ‘dynamism’ in Spanish economy
Bank of Spain governor expects 2% annual GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2014 and throughout 2015, but insists there are risks to Spanish recovery
Portuguese research examines decline in allocative efficiency
Bank of Portugal working paper finds service sector the ‘main driver’ of decline in allocative efficiency between 1996 and 2011, which the authors say nearly halved GDP growth
Brazil central bank director vows quick response to inflation
The monetary policy committee of the central bank will evaluate whether the interest rate needs to be raised to battle inflation, says director, and will act quickly if necessary
Countries in monetary union should index sovereign debt to GDP growth
Bank of England working paper finds GDP-indexed bonds should be used more widely, especially by countries with volatile GDP growth or in monetary unions
IMF paper finds highly indebted nations can still grow fast
Results of a new study contradict findings of Reinhart and Rogoff, who argued that growth declines at debt of more than 90% of GDP
Banque de France paper explains new GDP forecast model
New model aims to eliminate 'systematic upward predictive bias' since the crisis
Reserve Bank of Fiji adviser targets 5% growth
Lorraine Seeto believes the Fijian economy can grow by 5% each year; highlights the need for more investment, more exports, and a low and stable inflation rate
Slovenian economy assailed by austerity and money markets
According to central bank's 2012 annual report, inflation and credit costs increased as consumption, bank lending and the current account deficit fell
Czech study finds DFM ‘nowcasting' adds value in calculating real-time GDP
Dynamic Factor Model ‘nowcasting' is as accurate as the judgemental method currently used by the Czech National Bank; a simple average of the two results is more accurate than either on its own